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pmi

Macro: ISM Mfg PMI

By |2023-12-01T13:55:33-05:00December 1st, 2023|Economy|

The ISM PMI came in unchanged in November at 46.7, the 13th consecutive month this series has indicated contraction in manufacturing. On a positive note, though current production dropped, new orders rose. Other data points of note: Export orders dropped (6 of 18 industries reporting growth) Backlogs dropped (no industry reported growth in backlogs) Prices are no longer going down [...]

Macro: Chicago Business Barometer

By |2023-10-31T18:50:11-04:00October 31st, 2023|Economy|

Similar to other regional surveys, down .1 from September and near the average for the year. Soft conditions. We need directional confirmation. Chicago Business Barometer   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes [...]

Macro: Flash PMI — US, EU, Japan, UK, Australia

By |2023-10-24T14:04:22-04:00October 24th, 2023|Economy|

The initial print for October was good in the US. Europe continues to struggle. Japan weakens slightly. The UK flat-lines below 50. Australia drops. Numbers above 50 should indicate an economy is growing. FWIW, this data has been very choppy and even enigmatic. Composite Output Index US -- 51, up from 50.2 (a 3 month high) Eurozone -- 46.5, down [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Dog That Didn’t Bark

By |2022-08-29T08:11:56-04:00August 28th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892 It is hard to determine sometimes what [...]

Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

By |2022-06-24T19:49:31-04:00June 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide. For once, CPIs (or European HICPs) seemed to [...]

Widespread Sentiment Declines, Particularly Manufacturing New Orders

By |2022-06-23T19:48:34-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s an ominous though hardly surprising development. This has been shocking for those involved. Many if not most shipping companies had convinced themselves that once Shanghai and China’s vast harbor facilities were opened back up there’d be at least a mini-boom, a surge in activity for the world (America) to make up for lost time. Container rates were widely anticipated [...]

Globally Synchronized

By |2022-04-26T20:22:39-04:00April 26th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ECB Governor Christine Lagarde surprised, maybe even shocked most people when a few days ago it was reported she’d told her fellow policymakers to keep their mouths shut. Don’t go running to the financial media. Justifying the censorship, Lagarde said it was important for the central bank’s key officials to present a unified front given some drastic challenges over the [...]

Two Major Economies, One Key Difference In Timing

By |2022-03-31T20:07:35-04:00March 31st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A tale of two economies? At first, it might seem that way. However, this isn’t the first time apparent divergences have arisen. On the contrary, “decoupling” is a recurrent theme even though, in the end, it never happens. Of the major data released today, one set from the United States, the other in China. The former seemingly justifying the Federal [...]

Is There More To It?

By |2022-01-31T18:25:41-05:00January 31st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese authorities responded to their faltering economy in 2018 by diverging from their Western counterparts. Their PBOC would lean into rate cuts (RRR) at the very same time America's Federal Reserve would accelerate more in the direction of rate hikes. The ECB, for Europe’s part, intended to follow the Fed’s path, reaching December 2018 and terminating its own QE with [...]

Flipping Several Scripts

By |2022-01-18T19:54:15-05:00January 18th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The script has been flipped, so to speak, this time around. Whenever we’d go through one of those regular, alternating downturns worldwide, like the one which began right from the start of 2018, it was services which held up the increasingly troubled manufacturing sector. The variation for the swing, from globally synchronized growth to globally synchronized downturn, was mostly contained [...]

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