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Politics

Weekly Market Pulse: Patience Is A Virtue

By |2023-10-01T20:16:48-04:00October 1st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Most strategic asset allocation strategies have produced negative returns over the last two years. A 60/40 allocation of Vanguard Total Stock and Vanguard Total Bond is down over 6%. John Bogle's 3-fund portfolio, a global approach that includes an allocation to Vanguard Total International is down nearly 9%. Morningstar has a diversified portfolio that includes 11 different ETFs and it's [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Opposite George

By |2022-08-01T07:52:19-04:00July 31st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It all became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat... It's all been wrong. Every one. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perception vs Reality

By |2021-10-18T07:46:11-04:00October 17th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities   Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large. George Carlin   The quote from Dickens above is one that just about everyone knows even if they don't [...]

Conventional Wisdom Is Nothing of The Sort

By |2021-01-19T11:31:10-05:00January 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

If you had known in October all that would transpire over the next 2 ½ months, how would you have positioned your portfolio? The conventional wisdom before the election was that a Biden win would be negative for stocks because he has promised to raise taxes and specifically corporate taxes. In 2016, conventional wisdom was that a Trump victory would [...]

Political Economics

By |2017-10-20T11:49:25-04:00October 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter to some significant degree. It’s [...]

Questions

By |2017-08-20T14:39:16-04:00August 20th, 2017|Commodities, Markets|

Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000.  Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained high. Why? What changed in [...]

Committing To A World Without 3%

By |2017-06-21T12:53:55-04:00June 21st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When President Trump nominated Congressman Tom Price for Secretary of Health and Human Services he created a vacancy in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. After no candidate secured a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff was to take place yesterday among the top two contenders. Republican Karen Handel squared off against Democrat Jon Ossoff in a race both [...]

A Possible First Step In Maryland

By |2017-06-13T12:41:40-04:00June 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though we deal mostly in data, it is always prudent to remain connected and aware of anecdotes. It may even be more so in these kinds of times, where something like conditioning can desensitize analysis. Context is always important for any data, whether market or macro. My colleague Joe Calhoun pointed out recently a program in Maryland that has been [...]

Fighting Over The Exact Wrong Things

By |2017-05-17T12:41:02-04:00May 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Progressive New York Magazine columnist Jonathan Chait writing for the leftist New Republic in 2010 prophesied that if the Republicans took Congress that year and Obama won a second term two years after, “the House will vote to impeach him before he leaves office.” He was confident enough to make such a prediction because that is post-Nixon politics; they got [...]

The ‘Dollar’ Always Wins, And the Downside Isn’t Purely Financial or Even Economic

By |2016-11-08T12:14:32-05:00November 8th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For about the last two weeks, I have been writing about the contours of what I have perceived as a RMB liquidity operation that seems to be far more than the usual management of day-to-day confluences. Since the last week in October, RMB liquidity both onshore and offshore has been more and more plentiful but only in the shortest overnight [...]

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