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Perfect Payrolls Again; Unremarkable And Irrelevant

By |2016-01-08T13:24:14-05:00January 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think it entirely fitting, even useful in the long run, that December’s payroll report was yet another perfect month; the fourth of 2015 by my unofficial count. There was absolutely nothing wrong with any of the components, at least in the raw job count estimated by various statistical regressions and adjusted with imputations (wages, not so much). The problem [...]

When Even The Est. Survey Slows…

By |2015-08-07T12:03:14-04:00August 7th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The monthly payroll report needs to be rebranded the monthly labor force report. By far, the most accurate measure of the series continues to be the apathy of Americans not currently working or looking toward purportedly massive employment expansion. Those two positions are not only inconsistent, they are by all intuitive sense mutually exclusive. No less orthodoxy than Janet Yellen [...]

Jobs Nobody Wants Or Jobs That Just Don’t Exist

By |2014-10-07T16:47:11-04:00October 7th, 2014|Economy, Markets|

The latest August figures for the JOLTS companion to the payroll climate continue to raise the possibility of statistical corruptions. Back in June, the level of job openings suddenly and very sharply spiked upward. That was used as confirmation of the ongoing surge in employment, but without attribution as to how closely job openings relate to payroll indications through the [...]

What Is Being Left Out of the ‘Inarguable’ Payroll Expansion Is Far More Important

By |2014-08-01T14:38:29-04:00August 1st, 2014|Economy, Markets|

With all due respect to durable goods, perhaps I was a bit too hasty in assigning it the moniker of most boring. There is certainly competition now, as the monthly payroll euphoria has become just as homogenous, curiously, and engrained enough where commentary can simply be copied and pasted from month-to-month. Most people probably will not recall that such regularity [...]

Far Fewer Households Than People

By |2014-06-02T14:51:57-04:00June 2nd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There was more bad news for real estate recently beyond the consistent declines in housing stats. The one factor that housing bulls have been awaiting is household formation, though so far that one has remained a drag. And that was supposed to be the catalyst, in that eventually Americans had to begin moving out once more. After so many years [...]

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