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An October (‘inflation’) Revolution

By |2022-02-16T20:25:23-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most Americans understandably have tunnel vision when it comes to the American CPI and what it might portend for their personal circumstances. Gasoline prices and those for anyone trying to buy a car or now rent some kind of shelter, the threat is immediate. From this palpable sense, the word “transitory” today might just seem offensive.Yet, it may prove itself [...]

US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

By |2022-01-12T17:33:56-05:00January 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation? The short [...]

Demand, Supply, and Landmines, Oh my

By |2021-11-09T19:40:40-05:00November 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some call it the accordion effect while others refer to it in terms of a bullwhip. Whatever the terminology, the supply chain mess has created a set of perverse incentives leading to a positive feedback loop: the greater the mess, the longer the times for delivery, the more product gets ordered if in only to increase the chance something, anything [...]

Producer vs. Consumer Price Potential

By |2021-10-14T19:49:54-04:00October 14th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More inflation numbers around the world, more of the same. Producer prices, this time. Beginning in the US, the annual rates remain high and reached a little higher in September 2021. Commodities have been the highest of all, up 20.47% year-over-year for another greatest increase since the mid-seventies. The PPI for final demand goods was up 11.68%, that the most [...]

The Non-Charitable economics of (Not) Inflation

By |2021-09-10T17:10:32-04:00September 10th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are giant French freightliners really so generous? Big companies can be known for their philanthropy, of course, but such efforts aren’t usually folded into their own business activities. Generally speaking, the beneficiaries of corporate charity tend to be strangers. If determined giving is actually being applied within the narrower confines of the corporation, that’s not altruïsm but economics (small “e”). [...]

What *Was* It That Changed Around May?

By |2021-09-09T19:54:23-04:00September 9th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The inflation hysteria striking the US just hasn’t caught on elsewhere. China is a perfect example of resisting the strain. According to new figures from the Chinese government, consumer price inflation had retreated again during August 2021. The year-over-year change for their CPI was just 0.8%. This was the lowest since March, the fourth straight month of decelerating price changes.China’s [...]

What’s Real Behind Commodities

By |2021-09-07T18:08:01-04:00September 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is sustained monetary debasement – money printing, if you prefer – that wrecks consumer prices. It is the other of the evil monetary diseases, the one which is far more visible therefore visceral to the consumers pounded by spiraling costs of bare living. Yet, it is the lesser evil by comparison to deflation which insidiously destroys the labor market [...]

The Third Of The Transitory Inflation Trifecta And Today’s Surprisingly Consistent Ugly Surprise

By |2021-08-13T17:44:40-04:00August 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fitting, in a way, that with so much having come out this week, the 10-year Treasury yield would end it at almost exactly the same price/yield as it began. In between, another epic CPI, ’74-style PPI commodities, and now rounding out the BLS inflation trifecta today was the fourth straight double-digit gain (year-over-year) in import prices. To the latter, the [...]

PPI’s Near Ten Yet Treasury Custody

By |2021-08-12T19:47:46-04:00August 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two sets of indications, each heading in opposite directions. Or mainly at odds one from the other. To the inflationary side, the BLS reports producer prices that are still rising at substantial rates. The PPI representing the final demand for finished goods was up 9.35% year-over-year in July, slightly faster than the 9.19% posted in June. The latest a new [...]

Gold Slammed Early Asia In Trade With China Trade Then Inflation

By |2021-08-09T19:52:52-04:00August 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This one wasn’t nearly so perfect as the scramble for collateral had been a few Tuesdays ago. Last night’s, however, did have a sizable, visible contribution from the gold marketplace. That’s a significant tell even if it didn’t necessarily correlate by the minute with T-bills and other collateral numbers.In this instance if only because the gold “slam”, which was enormous, [...]

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