Fitting, in a way, that with so much having come out this week, the 10-year Treasury yield would end it at almost exactly the same price/yield as it began. In between, another epic CPI, ’74-style PPI commodities, and now rounding out the BLS inflation trifecta today was the fourth straight double-digit gain (year-over-year) in import prices. To the latter, the [...]
Two sets of indications, each heading in opposite directions. Or mainly at odds one from the other. To the inflationary side, the BLS reports producer prices that are still rising at substantial rates. The PPI representing the final demand for finished goods was up 9.35% year-over-year in July, slightly faster than the 9.19% posted in June. The latest a new [...]
This one wasn’t nearly so perfect as the scramble for collateral had been a few Tuesdays ago. Last night’s, however, did have a sizable, visible contribution from the gold marketplace. That’s a significant tell even if it didn’t necessarily correlate by the minute with T-bills and other collateral numbers.In this instance if only because the gold “slam”, which was enormous, [...]
Is there anyone left out there who doesn't know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10-year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are [...]
And just like that, snap of the fingers, it’s gone. Without a “bad” Treasury auction, there was no stopping the bond market today from retracing all of yesterday’s (modest) selloff and then some. This despite the huge CPI estimates released before the prior session’s trading, and now PPI figures that are equally if not more obscene. The BLS reports today [...]
Until last week you hadn't heard much about the bond market rally. I told you we were probably near a rally way back in early April when the 10-year was yielding around 1.7%. And I told you in mid-April that the 10-year yield could fall all the way back to the 1.2 to 1.3% range. The bond rally since April [...]
Inflation is more than just any old touchy subject in an age overflowing with crude, visceral debates up and down the spectrum reaching into every corner of life. It is about life itself, and not just quality. When the prices of the goods (or services) you absolutely depend upon go up, your entire world becomes that much more difficult. For [...]
The way it has been described since, yesterday’s CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. There is no more argument, apparently, and if that wasn’t apparent enough then today it was followed up with even more highly-touted evidence. Producer prices, the PPI, came up even more over-the-moon than those for consumers.The commodities portion, no [...]
I’m going to start with what might seem to be somewhat of a non sequitur if only because it’s one of those things you just have to laugh at. Researching historical cases and examples, I typically try to read as many contemporary thoughts or news articles as possible to gain a sense of what “everyone” was thinking at whichever times.In [...]
While we consider the PPI’s view of inflationary pressures as overstated by simple arithmetic and the math of commodities, there’s no denying that producer prices have risen by a substantial amount. The question, the whole issue, is why. If it is truly because price pressures are building and have grown close to breaking out in systemic fashion, then that would [...]
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