qe

I Have Questions

By |2023-07-17T07:43:30-04:00July 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time asking questions. I don't always have answers to these questions but I think it is critical to ask them. Think about how the consensus might be wrong or, more importantly, how you might be. Question the narrative and try to determine what's important and what's not, who you can ignore, and who merits your [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: First, Kill All The Speculators

By |2023-01-30T11:44:01-05:00January 30th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The market has factored in a small probability that they do nothing and leave rates alone, but they'll probably do what's expected because they've spent the last couple of months preparing the markets for exactly this [...]

The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of The Same

By |2022-06-21T18:58:14-04:00June 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only thing that changed was the CPI. What distinguishes 2021-22 from the prior post-crisis period 2007-20 is merely the performance of whatever consumer price index. This latter has been called inflation, yet the data conclusively support the market verdict pricing how it never was.What data? The "everything" data, the most comprehensive financial and monetary compendium yet available: The Financial [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Fat Pitch?

By |2022-05-09T08:40:40-04:00May 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Something very important happened last week. No, it had nothing to do with the stock market, at least not directly. There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points (0.21%). Yes, growth stocks continued their march toward reality with the NASDAQ 100 down 1.25% but [...]

Collateral Shortage…From *A* Fed Perspective

By |2022-05-03T20:32:04-04:00May 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one thing or another. Take, for example, collateral scarcity. By itself, it’s already a problem but it may not be enough to bring the whole system to reverse. A good illustration would be 2017. Throughout that whole year, T-bill rates (4-week, in particular) kept indicating this very shortfall, especially the repeated instances when equivalent bill yields would [...]

Do I Owe Christine Lagarde An Apology?

By |2022-04-29T17:59:22-04:00April 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I may have to rethink my opinion of Christine Lagarde. It just may be that after helming one serious debacle after another, she – unlike most in her position – may have learned a thing or two about being too quick to call it a day. Premature celebrations were the hallmark of central banks throughout the last fifteen years, including, [...]

I Told You It *Wasn’t* Money Printing; How The Fed Helped Cause, But Can’t Solve, Our Current ‘Inflation’

By |2022-04-19T17:38:29-04:00April 19th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trust the Fed. Ha! It’s one thing for money dealers to look upon Jay Powell’s stash of bank reserves with remarkable disdain, more immediately damning when effects of the same liquidity premiums in the real economy create serious frictions leaving the entire world exposed to the consequences. When all is said and done, the Federal Reserve has created its own [...]

Goldilocks And The Three Central Banks

By |2022-04-06T20:12:02-04:00April 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This isn’t going to be like the tale of Goldilocks, at least not how it’s usually told. There are three central banks, sure, call them bears if you wish, each pursuing a different set of fuzzy policies. One is clearly hot, the other quite cold, the final almost certainly won’t be “just right.” Rather, this one in the middle simply [...]

The Rate Hikers Are Not Serious People

By |2022-03-03T19:38:15-05:00March 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though I say, write, and communicate all the time how the Federal Reserve is not a central bank because it doesn’t do money and that therefore its non-money monetary policies are little more than pop psychology conveyed via an increasingly stale puppet show, you might be surprised to learn that none other than Janet Yellen has publicly agreed with my [...]

Are Central Bankers About To Spike The Ball At The 30-yard line (again)?

By |2022-02-22T18:50:50-05:00February 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nobody, and I mean nobody, does premature celebrations like central bankers. When it comes to their non-money monetary policies and the inflation they seek to create from them, time and again officials in every jurisdiction spike the ball at least 30 yards before they reach the endzone. Whenever one or another consumer price measure ticks up, or accelerates dramatically as [...]

Go to Top