QE3

Swap Mean

By |2020-06-26T19:28:37-04:00June 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Little noticed at the time, October 2012 was quite the roller coaster. Most anyone cared about was QE3, the wonderful, awesome flood of liquidity kindly wise-man Chairman Bernanke had restarted for reasons that didn’t seem so important. Did it matter to the public that the repo market went haywire late in that very same month, at the very same time [...]

Still TIC’ed Off In The Shadows In April

By |2020-06-17T17:10:09-04:00June 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On March 15, 2013, the US Treasury Department issued a request for a “large position report” (17 CFR Part 420). Any institution holding $2 billion or more of the 2% notes expiring in February 2023 (10-year maturity) had until March 21 to disclose that fact to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (faxed disclosures accepted). The repo rate for [...]

Insane Repo Reminds Us

By |2019-01-02T15:19:06-05:00January 2nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was only near the quarter end, that’s what made it so unnerving. We may have become used to these calendar bottlenecks over the years, but they still remind us what they are. Late October 2012 was a little different, though. On October 29, the GC repo rate for UST collateral (DTCC) surged to 52.6 bps. The money market floor, [...]

As Good As It Gets?

By |2017-08-08T12:05:11-04:00August 8th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

By Jeffrey Snider & Joseph Calhoun Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high [...]

Rationalizing Betrayal

By |2015-08-26T12:52:51-04:00August 26th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To illustrate just how badly Monday’s selloff (and yesterday’s late day reversal) seems to have shaken core confidence in the overriding narrative (ALL IS WELL!) you need only view the drastic reversal on what stock prices supposedly mean. With QE’s producing little or no tangible economic benefit, certainly nothing specific with which its proponents can easily point to, they have [...]

Risk Appears Seriously Wounded

By |2015-08-21T17:31:47-04:00August 21st, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Stocks aren’t quite as immune to financial disruption in the middle of 2015 as they had been previously. The last major, comprehensive selloff was also in tandem with “dollar” disorder back last October 15. This time, the motion was more erosion than “event”; at least until the past week. Just like crude oil, stocks lost their momentum back in early [...]

The Greater the Stock Bubble, the Less Monetary Theory Holds

By |2014-08-26T16:42:10-04:00August 26th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The actual total accumulated balance for margin debt in reported stock accounts fell in July from June’s record amount. But even with a decline in stock-related debt investors moved even further toward complacency, as declines in free credit and available cash more than outpaced the drop in margin. As a result, net worth has never been lower as we have [...]

Houses, FHA Losses And Eternal Faith in Persuasion

By |2012-11-16T15:08:19-05:00November 16th, 2012|Markets|

"More than 17 percent of all FHA loans were delinquent in September, according to data on the agency’s website." I believe that number was 9% last quarter. Of course not all delinquencies turn into bad loans, or full-on NPL's, but both the trend and absolute level should be alarming. The major problem, however, seems to be the mortgage guarantee business [...]

Tactical Update

By |2012-09-30T11:35:58-04:00September 30th, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The Fed has indicated the willingness to buy securities from savers and investors until we get job growth.  But what does this really mean?  Can the Fed induce hiring from further quantitative easing? Bernanke to investors of capital: “take risks today, lend money to entrepreneurs so they can hire.  Act now, because we are buying bonds and you should expect [...]

Thinking Things Over: Bernanke Casts a Vote for Obama

By |2012-09-16T17:28:19-04:00September 16th, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thinking Things Over    September 16, 2012 Volume II, Number 31:  Bernanke Casts a Vote for Obama                                                                                                                    John L. Chapman, Ph.D.     Washington, D.C. “Reason…teaches all Mankind, who would but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his Life, Health, Liberty, or Possessions. [And what best promotes this?] …[A] standing Rule to live by, common to [...]

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