Asset markets on Friday reversed course after fully digesting a payroll report that has been universally assailed. The thinking is, apparently, that the Fed will have no choice but to stay on the sidelines now. That view is certainly bolstered by the FOMC’s inaction already in September, so worsening economic fortunes in the US apparently removes any flexibility anytime soon. [...]
There is growing turmoil in buybacks that threatens the very fabric of the stock bubble. That was always the primary transmission of the foundation of its current manifestation, corporate debt, into asset prices; especially the huge run following QE3 and QE4. As represented by the S&P 500 Buyback Index, this liquidity propensity has found a durable reverse. After peaking all [...]
Repetition is the signal of the unnatural. With stock prices moving back toward a positive daily trade, such immense volatility in what was surely a junior flash crash will be swiftly discharged as unimportant; the bull must stand. The NASDAQ at one point this morning was down to 4292 and the DJIA off about 1,000 points at the worst. And [...]
Rhetorically, I wondered yesterday what it was that economists and the media were actually looking at when opining about certain economic topics. That was in relation to German factory orders which are clearly moving in the “wrong” direction, to which that is supposed to be set aside in favor of “sentiment” and the ephemeral “confidence.” Neither of those words really [...]
The quarterly update of the Flow of Funds Report (now called the Financial Accounts of the United States, but still Z1) means we can update a couple measures of stock market exuberance – Tobins Q and Market Value of Equities compared to GDP. The delay in preparing and releasing the data, however, means staleness since the latest estimates are for [...]
Nearly all (97.5%) of the S&P 500 companies have reported for the first quarter. EPS for the index companies stumbled rather spectacularly, though weather is being blamed for nearly all of it. Back on January 23, index EPS in Q1 was expected at around $29.40 (as reported). As of the latest update, EPS is only at $24.79, a 15% miss [...]
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