fbpx

real disposable personal income per capita

There’s No Income So There Can’t Really Be Shortages

By |2018-07-02T11:43:26-04:00July 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The plural of anecdote is not data. At any given time in any given economy you can find counterexamples. During the Great Depression, for example, millions of Americans were doing very well for themselves. It wasn’t difficult to locate and talk to those who were prospering during what was a legitimate catastrophe. It’s never all or nothing. Rather, the issue [...]

It’s Q1 Again, Do You Know Where Consumer Spending Is?

By |2018-03-01T16:24:34-05:00March 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Residual seasonality isn’t a residual, but it is seasonal. The concept was introduced several years ago mostly because Economists were finally being embarrassed about their meteorological predilections. It had become common, far too common, to blame snow, cold, and general wintry like conditions during the winter. Thus, something else had to be brought forward to explain why what looked like [...]

The (Economic) Difference Between Stocks and Bonds

By |2017-10-30T18:00:04-04:00October 30th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.6% in September 2017 above August. That was the largest monthly increase (SAAR) in almost three years. Given that Real PCE declined month-over-month in August, it is reasonable to assume hurricane effects for both. Across the two months, Real PCE rose by a far more modest 0.5% total, or an annual rate of just [...]

Proving Q2 GDP The Anomaly, Incomes Yet Again Fail To Accelerate

By |2017-08-31T14:26:13-04:00August 31st, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One day after reporting a slightly better number for Q2 GDP, the BEA reports today that there is little reason to suspect it was anything more or lasting. The data for Personal Income and Spending shows that the dominant condition since 2012 remains in effect – “good” quarters, or whatever passes for one these days, are the anomaly. There still [...]

Entirely Too Flimsy

By |2017-08-01T17:34:59-04:00August 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For such an important set of data, the PCE stuff continues to suggest a whole lot of capriciousness. There has been a tendency to drastically revise figures such that they change not in the small ways regular revisions are supposed to produce. The whole purpose of especially benchmark revisions is to calculate a more accurate number. In the past few [...]

Missing Income

By |2017-07-03T12:21:17-04:00July 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With inflation tailing off as oil price base effects fade, statistics that turn nominal into real terms will start looking better. Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita, for example, increased in May 2017 at a faster rate than in January. The difference, however, isn’t all that much. The CPI in January was 2.50% and 1.87% in May, but Real DPI [...]

Incomes Always Deviate Negative

By |2017-03-31T15:39:33-04:00March 31st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst. The difference is still calculated [...]

Where’s The Momentum?

By |2017-01-31T11:34:22-05:00January 31st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve in early 2012 altered longstanding monetary policy. In January that year, the FOMC had voted to make explicit what everyone already knew, that it considered 2% inflation to be the definition of “stable” consumer prices, casting off one of the last vestiges of 1980’s era regimes where central bankers felt silence was the best course. It had [...]

Always About Income

By |2016-04-29T16:29:39-04:00April 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The emphasis on the labor market has become ubiquitous but it is not being used in the manner with which it should be used. It is now permanently attached to words like “despite” or “in contrast” no matter which economic data point is being described. The Wall Street Journal provides a perfect example in writing about the latest update for [...]

Figuring Out The ‘Services Economy’

By |2016-03-29T12:29:39-04:00March 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Markit Services PMI flash reading for March rebounded from the sub-50 reading in February, but only slightly. The calculation continues to suggest that the “services economy” is following the manufacturing and “goods economy” even if with some lag. The internals of the survey were not any better, with the new orders component falling to the lowest level of the [...]

Go to Top