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real final sales to domestic purchasers

Is It Recession?

By |2022-04-28T20:30:20-04:00April 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to today’s advance estimate for first quarter 2022 US real GDP, the third highest (inflation-adjusted) inventory build on record subtracted nearly a point off the quarter-over-quarter annual rate. Yes, you read that right; deducted from growth, as in lowered it. This might seem counterintuitive since by GDP accounting inventory adds to output.It only does so, however, via its own [...]

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much

By |2018-08-29T17:23:13-04:00August 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky high. The business association’s index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn’t seen since the apex of the dot-com days. Though I’m not sure that’s really a positive reflection on the economy, the mainstream verdict is as usual quite different. U.S. consumer confidence surged to near an 18-year high [...]

The Weight of Economic Risks

By |2017-04-28T16:14:11-04:00April 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The internals of the GDP report were as ugly as the headline. The major source of weakness was what was supposed to be the sole source of strength – consumers. Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, a measure of all goods and services Americans bought regardless of where they originated, increased by just 1.51% (quarter-over-quarter annual rate) in Q1. That [...]

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