real interest rates

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

By |2018-05-21T20:48:14+00:00May 21st, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year - and in future years - due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: One Down, Three To Go

By |2018-02-27T18:01:28+00:00February 27th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Economic Reports Economic Growth & Investment We pay particular attention to broad based indicators of growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators are examples. We watch them because we are mostly interested in identifying inflection points in the broad economy and aren't as interested in the details.  Why? [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Animal Spirits Haunt The Market

By |2017-12-19T15:56:01+00:00December 19th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

By |2017-11-07T20:28:18+00:00November 7th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets

By |2017-09-24T15:21:47+00:00September 24th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The incoming economic data hasn't changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: No Upside To Credit

By |2017-08-18T12:02:15+00:00August 18th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are other changes to the portfolio though so please read on. As I write this the stock market is in the process of taking a dive (well if [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Ignore The Idiot

By |2017-08-14T20:47:55+00:00August 14th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-04-23T14:57:39+00:00April 23rd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks|

It wasn't a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called "soft data" is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-02-27T11:52:38+00:00February 27th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue [...]