real pce

Momentum Lost? Private Income Corroborates Possibility Presented By Claims

By |2020-07-31T18:14:52-04:00July 31st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Entering 2020, before overreactions to COVID and the shutdown they brought, private income derived from all sources had slowed to the lowest rate since 2010 (not counting 2013, that year skewed by tax changes which were implemented finishing up 2012). According to the latest annual revisions for it, last year, 2019, was a bit more recessionary than previously thought especially [...]

When Gigantic Positives Have Lost Their Appeal

By |2020-06-26T16:25:27-04:00June 26th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report for May was a shock because it came in as a plus when analysts, whomever they are, were expecting another huge minus. It seemed to set the tone for a realistic pathway being made out in the shape of the most perfect “V” ever written down. The mistake, such that there has been one, was interpreting the [...]

A First Look At Why Greater Demand For Scapegoats Than Rate Cuts

By |2019-04-01T16:57:50-04:00April 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported data on US Personal Income and Spending that hit every sour note. There was the lowest inflation rate, the deflator to those spending figures, in years as well as the clear need to officially anoint a successor to the Verizon madness. The release also featured residual seasonality, and, [...]

The Outer Limits of Sentiment

By |2018-01-29T11:58:32-05:00January 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of all the moving parts contradicting the narrative of the growing economic boom, it’s incomes that will do it the most disservice. After all, there can be no such thing without them. Until our future robot AI overlords finally descend to either free humanity from labor, or eliminate us altogether, the economy still runs on the basic capitalist premise of [...]

Incomes Are What Matters, So Bad Month, Bad Year, Bad Decade

By |2017-09-29T11:52:04-04:00September 29th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes economics can be complicated, such as why the labor market has slowed in such lingering fashion since early 2015. Sometimes economics can be easy, such as why there is so much less to the economy this year than thought. The easy part relates to the hard part. The labor market slowed and so did national income. Though so much [...]

The Weight of Economic Risks

By |2017-04-28T16:14:11-04:00April 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The internals of the GDP report were as ugly as the headline. The major source of weakness was what was supposed to be the sole source of strength – consumers. Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, a measure of all goods and services Americans bought regardless of where they originated, increased by just 1.51% (quarter-over-quarter annual rate) in Q1. That [...]

Headwinds Of The Negative Feedback

By |2017-03-01T17:45:19-05:00March 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As oil prices remain as they are in relation to where they were one year ago, measured inflation rates have come back up, some faster than others. This does mimic the real world situation where consumers are paying more now for gasoline than they did last year. Even though they are paying less than three years ago for the same [...]

Statistics of Depression

By |2016-08-02T18:00:05-04:00August 2nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Personal Savings Rate is a rather important economic indication. Because it is derived from the difference between income and spending, it can tell us a great deal about the state of the economy from the consumer perspective. Unfortunately, nobody can say with any degree of confidence what the savings rate is right now, or even what it has been [...]

Always About Income

By |2016-04-29T16:29:39-04:00April 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The emphasis on the labor market has become ubiquitous but it is not being used in the manner with which it should be used. It is now permanently attached to words like “despite” or “in contrast” no matter which economic data point is being described. The Wall Street Journal provides a perfect example in writing about the latest update for [...]

Turning Just 2.4% Income Growth Into A Robust Recovery

By |2015-08-28T17:47:49-04:00August 28th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today’s release of personal income and spending is very much related to the revised GDP figures, though I have no doubt that the BEA wishes it were not. To start with, the ongoing chain of benchmark revisions has produced an inordinately volatile set of economic accounts. That is quite against the stated purpose of all this adjusting and statistical intrusiveness; [...]

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