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real personal income excluding transfer receipts

Inventory Flood Continues Just As Consumers Tap Out

By |2022-05-27T19:53:48-04:00May 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it continues to play out the same way, it would be all the worst scenarios lumped together all at the same time. A real unfortunate convergence, yet one that has been entirely predictable. Consumers reaching their absolute spending limits. Warehouse and storage capacity nationwide dwindling to long-time lows, leaving firms no options to store inbound goods. And, of course, [...]

Some ‘Core’ ‘Inflation’ Difference(s)

By |2022-04-29T19:33:52-04:00April 29th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC meets next week, with everyone everywhere expecting a 50 bps rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. Yesterday’s “unexpected” and “shocking” negative GDP is unlikely to deter anyone on the committee. Most have already dismissed it as nothing more than quirky, temporary factors, not unlike when they did the same to Q1 2014’s similarly negative result. At least [...]

The Short, Sweet Income Case For Ugly Inversion(s), Too

By |2022-04-01T19:21:53-04:00April 1st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A nod to just how backward and upside down the world is now. The economic data everyone is made to pay attention to, payrolls, that one is, in my view, irrelevant. As is the consumer price estimates from earlier this week, the PCE Deflator. That’s another one which receives vast amounts of interest even though it is already old news.Yet, [...]

These Are The Charts/Data The Fed Is Ignoring In Its Rush To Mistake Rates

By |2022-02-25T17:25:48-05:00February 25th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The labor theory of inflation, the one the FOMC will use to justify rate hikes in 2022 (as far as they might go), isn’t just wages and competition for the presumed scarce marginal worker. While a tight labor market might drive up the marginal cost for labor inputs, in order for companies to then pass those higher costs back to [...]

All The Curves, From Supply To Demand To Yield

By |2022-01-28T17:52:25-05:00January 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Technically speaking, the rebound from the 2020 recession wasn’t strictly a supply shock. That was a huge part of it, no doubt, but a near-concurrent demand shock, if you will, also materialized. The combination of the two left the public bewildered, believing it an actual inflationary impasse which could only be further passed on into this year.Consumer prices did rise, [...]

White-Hot Cycles of Silence

By |2021-12-27T18:46:15-05:00December 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’re only ever given the two options: the economy is either in recession, or it isn’t. And if “not”, then we’re led to believe it must be in recovery if not outright booming already. These are what Economics says is the business cycle. A full absence of unit roots. No gray areas to explore the sudden arrival of only deeply [...]

Camp Sour or Soar: Inflation (global) and Spending

By |2021-11-29T17:30:15-05:00November 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always a balance of probabilities tug-of-war. Markets (not stocks) are continuously trying to discern risk since everything is really converted to some kind of risk-adjusted basis. And if the perceived weight of those tilts downward thinking forward, then it may not matter much or at all what’s going on right now.What’s going on right now is, according to everyone, [...]

As Predictable Transitory ‘Inflation’, Predictably The Fed’s Taper Is (truly) Something Else

By |2021-10-29T17:29:44-04:00October 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a very real sense, neither the current rate of PCE Deflator “inflation” nor any more expected to be added by the reported LABOR SHORTAGE!!! are what’s pushing the Federal Reserve toward its next taper error. The Fed doesn’t do money, so that’s not an option for them by which to set policy parameters. All that’s left, then, is “expectations.”Jay [...]

No Inflation Without Income; There’s No Income

By |2021-10-01T19:57:46-04:00October 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Money, economy, income. Those are the three ingredients that make textbook inflation and keep it together. Money flowing naturally through the economy turns into organic income which if out of balance with the rest of the macro factors can create broad-based and sustained consumer price increases. If actually caused by the combination of those three, the result would be the [...]

Not Black Mouth To Bad Mouth The Global Causes of Transitory Inflation

By |2021-08-31T19:32:38-04:00August 31st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Apparently, analysts were shocked when the Conference Board reported earlier today that its measure of consumer confidence, its own bread and butter, in the name, after all, dropped by a rather substantial eleven-plus points in August. And that was on top of a four-point downward revision to July. The new level of 113.8 compares to average expectations for ~124.0. Therefore, [...]

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