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Letting Down The Faithful

By |2015-03-20T15:21:19-04:00March 20th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Typically, economists are not much more than parrots for the officially-modeled results that are run out and treated ahead of time as if they were actually to have happened. If the Fed says it expects 4% growth in 2015, then you can bet almost surely that will be the major point of emphasis all over TV and print (including online). [...]

Friday FOMC Memories: Bent Straight Lines

By |2014-04-11T16:53:38-04:00April 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose when your entire task derives from regression-based statistics, there is the tendency to incorporate straight lines into even your own thought patterns. Of course, that leads to self-reinforcing bias and should be canceled by some governing process. Usually that governing process takes the form of applied knowledge (as opposed to math-based knowledge) and plain common sense. In a [...]

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