The focus on China and the Chinese economy is not just related to its size but more so the fact that it is the pivot point for the whole global system. In pure economic terms, as “end demand” from the developed world economies slows, the Chinese economy either absorbs that reduction (through its own internal “stimulus”) or passes it on [...]
Factory orders shrank by 3.5% in November, which was actually the best monthly rate for 2015. Unfortunately, that continues a streak of 13 consecutive monthly declines as the manufacturing recession continues to persist. The more important 6-month average is still worse than -7%, which remains not far off the worst part of the dot-com recession by comparison. Seasonally-adjusted, factory orders [...]
Any ideas about junk bonds outperforming because of the booming economy confirmed by a monetary policy rate hike has been killed and buried. Conventionally, it was assumed that interest rates are not the primary “risk” parameter for high yield corporates of all flavors, and that is correct. Junk issues and lower tier obligors are creatures of the credit cycle, thus [...]
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