201409.19
2
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Credit Rundown of Opposing Propositions That Aren’t Necissarily Opposed

There is an interesting dichotomy taking shape in credit markets, including those around the globe (that will be a separate post). Some of this, I think, relates to what FOMC member Richard Fisher related today about concerns over asset bubbles. I think the Economic Times of India summed him up the best: Already there are…

201409.18
1
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Home Construction Still Moving Down

Another month, another instance where supposed “tight” supply and high home prices fail to register any significant change in home construction. Construction figures for August bear little resemblance to the idea that anything other than monetary interference is responsible for the mini-bubble in activity. Further, August represents another month’s worth of confirmation, despite any and…

201409.17
3
0

China Profoundly Disagrees With FOMC Assessments

With Brazil in recession and much of the “resource” part of the supply chain nearing that or worrying about it, you can surely bet that there are “unexpected” problems in the Chinese economy. As much as the word “decoupling” is being used once again (though in 2008 it was reversed, with the world supposedly able…

201409.12
2
0

Praying to the God of ‘Global Growth’

Part of the tale being spun perpetually about the economy, any economy in this day and age, relies on nothing more than circularism. Because monetary policy is so captured by managing expectations, meaning that economists and policymakers will never be anything but positive about anything ever again, you end up with nonsense as a foundation…

201409.12
0
0

August Was Concerning

The retail sales release for August was actually quite alarming. The track of sales pretty much confirms the end of the spring “bounce” that showed up in Gallup’s figures, but the real concern is that the “bounce” itself was never more than a minor adjustment; an absence of further erosion as it were. That is…

201409.09
4
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Currencies Break, Gold Does Not

With credit markets in Europe and the US taking a bit of a pause for profit-taking or reassessment, it is notable that currencies have not. The euro finally broke free of what looked like a steady range, though unfortunately to the downside. While that may be celebrated by orthodox economists in Brussels and elsewhere, it…

201409.05
2
0

Low-Amplitude ‘Cycles’

If you limited yourself to only the official unemployment rate the picture you get of the economy is seemingly one that fits very much inside historical expectations. The rate rose and fell just like it “should” in a recession/recovery cycle. That raises the question about why this period has been so divergent with past expectations….

201409.04
1
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A Reminder About Payrolls and Revisions

Despite any intent, the revisions to wages and real incomes that I highlighted yesterday actually go a long way toward providing an explanation for other “aberrations” that still exist. The primary problem I have with accepting the mainstream version of economic events, particularly that of the Establishment Survey, is that the labor force is still…

201409.04
0
0

Desperate ECB’s Quixotic Quest to ‘Chase’ Eonia Below Zero If ‘Needed’

The ECB’s experimentation with negative nominal interest rates is exactly that – an experiment whose range of conclusions spans the full spectrum of possibilities. I have absolutely no doubt at all that they have done enough regression calculations and monte carlo simulations to have estimated “central tendencies”, but at the same time I highly doubt…

201409.03
5
0

Spending, Stagnation and the Revised Position of Instability

Personal intuition usually serves well in both economics and finance, which is why, despite all the billions of dollars and amazing efforts otherwise, this business is still an art and not a “science” (even pseudo-). I should have remembered as such the last time I actually reported on a sentiment survey, as the Chicago PMI…