201501.22
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Confirming The Cliff

I always believed that at some point “markets” would view the announcement of yet another “extraordinary” monetary program with actual candor rather than conditioned disbelief more befitting a magician’s audience. The primary focus would be not about future conditions, which is the entire point of monetarism in the rational expectations age, but what the “need”…

201501.21
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Dread The New Anchor

I mentioned yesterday in looking at the behavior of gold that it seems as if the “dollar” has entered a bit of a pause in its wider destructive reality of late. Maybe that coincidence with the SNB’s dramatic alteration offers an explanation for it, with renewed focus on the European end of eurdollars, or that…

201501.20
6
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Gold Does Seem To Suggest A Different Degree Of At Least Uncertainty

The main problem with looking at the financial world from a “dollar” funding perspective is that there really is no such monolithic existence. The funding conditions in Russia may be very different than those of Swiss banks; they also may be far too similar. Given the impossibility of direct observation, being left outside and searching…

201501.20
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No Surprises Again About China

Unlike previous moves in China, this one in the middle of December caught very little notice. Perhaps that was because the big reduction in the eligibility of repo collateral had “markets” and economists on their heels in disarray about what it was all supposed to mean in the context of obviously (perhaps a touch dangerously)…

201501.14
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Demand Worries Gain, Though Still Dismissed Outside of Actual Trading

There wasn’t anything out of China that would explain, even partially, the big hit to copper today. Every commentator tasked with offering an opinion has linked copper to China and only China, yet the only economic news of note today was retail sales in the US. The World Bank did its part by cutting growth…

201501.13
7
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And The ‘Dollar’ Nail

In parallel to US$ credit markets, the “dollar” itself found a new and worsened degree of “tightness” right around December 1. The trend that was already in place, doing so much damage globally prior to about Thanksgiving, took another upward turn at the same time US credit markets may have completely given up on the…

201501.13
1
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Taper Template Updated

There is more than a passing interest in the 1937 retrenchment or what amounted to a “depression within a depression.” Numerous large-scale similarities abound between what occurred in the middle of the 1930’s and what is shaping up in the middle of the 2010’s. That makes for reasonable study about the very core and basic…

201501.12
7
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Stock Market ‘Dilemma': Future Wage Growth Or Slashing Capex?

Turning attention to that last bastion of monetary surety, equities, the oil slump might be the greatest challenge yet to the non-stop stock escalator. Earnings especially for the S&P 500 are being revised lower as energy companies weigh on results. And while there may be a tendency to dismiss energy as its own problem, there…

201501.09
1
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Stimulus

As additional comparison for the current state of European credit, as you can easily get lost in the train wreck, I thought it interesting to include separately a wider perspective. I’m sure what I present below will make “sense” to someone at the ECB or one of the other central bank confederates in the context…

201501.09
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Absolutely No Love For European QE

If the ECB is deliberately trying to prove how little efficacy it still may hold, they are doing an excellent job at it. There has been nothing but QE, QE and more QE in Europe since the New Year, which in the past might have at least courted some significant positive thoughts. If you recall…