201609.28
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Moving Beyond Normal

Durable goods continue to suggest a weak economy that only seems to remain in that state. Year-over-year, unadjusted estimates for new orders rose slightly for the first time since May, while seasonally adjusted total orders (including the transportation sector) were fractionally lower at $226.9 billion. That amount was 2% less than January 2016 and 4.3%…

201609.22
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Lack of Resale Inventory Further Points To ‘Something’ Changed

The pace of new home sales fell again in August according to the National Association of Realtors. On a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, the rate of resales registered 5.33 million compared to 5.38 million in July and 5.29 million in August 2015. The growth rate on sales has clearly slowed, and the NAR itself finds that…

201609.21
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Yellen’s Words Are Irrelevant; ‘It’ Is In Her Numbers

There is absolutely no need whatsoever to pay any attention to what Janet Yellen says. There is even less call for parsing the increasingly ridiculous FOMC statement, particularly with regard to inflation where it will continue to suggest “professional forecasters” are the only way (left) to measure monetary policy effectiveness. Instead, four times a year…

201609.16
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The Feel Of Recession

For the fifteenth consecutive month dating back to November 2014, the US CPI remained less than 1.5%. While this was supposed to be the year where “transitory” effects of oil prices as well as “other” factors dissipated, only in January has the full CPI been above 1.1%. Much like the PCE Deflator, the Fed’s preferred…

201609.15
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Retail Sales: Often Undetectable Strangulation

It follows that if we find production dropping into a two-year slump, sales are likely the cause. Retail sales continue to be just as stuck as the rest of the economy, an economic limbo between growth and recession with far more of recession than growth. After suffering one of the worst months in July, retail…

201609.15
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Sufficient Time Accumulated For Judgment About The Industrial Economy

Industrial production in the United States fell by 1.1% year-over-year in August, a slightly larger decline than the -0.6% estimated for each of the two months prior. August’s negative was the twelfth consecutive, marking a full year in slow but unusually persistent contraction at such a slope. The seasonally-adjusted peak was reached in November 2014,…

201609.09
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The Scale Of Wholesale Economic Loss

The worst month for the wholesale level of the supply chain during the Great Recession was May 2009, just at the tail end of the heaviest part. The amount of sales as well as the calculated decline has moved around somewhat over the years as revisions have rewritten the amplitudes and the ultimate depth of…

201609.07
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Living The ‘Dollar’s’ Warning

Speaking yesterday in Reno, Nevada, San Francisco Fed President (and CEO) John C. Williams delivered remarks on the normalization of monetary policy. So as not to put the cart before the horse, Williams noted that first the economy must do so before the FOMC can even consider the same for their self-assigned tasks. I’ll start…

201609.06
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Factory Orders Make No Sense To ‘Full Employment’ On Any Level

Factory orders rose in July in seasonally-adjusted terms from a downward revised June level. As has been the case with a number of economic data points this summer, that was a drastically different result than the unadjusted comparison. Since only the narrowest monthly interpretation makes it into most commentary about the economy, let alone manufacturing,…

201609.02
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Slowing And Even Contracting: Hours & Earnings

The primary symptom of the economic malaise or depression that has developed since the Great Recession (which wasn’t a recession) is an economy that works less and thus earns less. Such a condition would suggest a shrunken system or at least vastly diminished potential. That much is well-established even in the orthodox literature though it…