recession

Durable Goods Becoming Less Boring?

The durable goods report has become one of the most boring and uninteresting of all the major data series. There has been little change in the pace of growth, as these segments are clearly stuck in the rut that seemingly captured everything in the middle of 2012. While there is growth, it is nothing like .. read more

Beyond Gallup

Since I believe the Gallup poll estimates to be significant, I want to revisit them with the addition of one more factor which I think further illustrates the distinct lack of progress toward escape velocity. By Gallup’s own definitions, they ask respondents (with representative sampling techniques, including a 50% landline/50% cell mix) what they spent .. read more

It’s Not Coming

Entrenched narratives die extremely hard, with all due respect to John McClane’s [Bruce Willis] aging franchise, and I cannot remember something so cemented as the recovery idea this year. That is really saying something considering that each and every New Year’s Day after the trough of the Great Recession has brought out the same exact .. read more

Another Nail In The Payroll Coffin?

There are a few more pieces of economic accounts to put together before the disaster of a first quarter can be left behind (if only until the next set of revisions). A major part of the economic picture is derived from productivity, as that feature defines sustainability and ties together labor growth with productive investment. .. read more

Not Much Bounce, Con’t

With today’s retail sales report, there is broad confirmation of the diminishing “resilience” of consumer abilities that have been dampening expectations ever since the turn in season failed to produce a massive surge. That is not to say that the past four months have not been better than those just prior, as growth has indeed .. read more

WSJ: Spring Without Much Bounce

You hear it repeated incessantly that the US economy is consumer-driven, and perhaps it is in some very narrow aspects. The idea, however, that consumption accounts for 70% of the economy is false, a figure derived from GDP calculations that include, among other artificial creations, an imputation for homeowner rent equivalence (BEA estimates how much .. read more

Inventory Stasis As Sales Lag

The wholesale inventory estimates seem to have raised more than a bit of optimism. I think that is highly misplaced for both GDP and the economy. On the GDP calculation side, there needs to be another huge gain in inventory to be “highly supportive” due to the second derivative nature of the estimate. As for .. read more

On July 10th, 2014, posted in: Economy, Markets by Tags: , , , ,

The Dustbin Of Post-Panic History: QE Finally Joins The ‘Stimulus’ Bill

The FOMC policy statement confirms without much doubt that there has been a major shift in conditions and outlook. To reiterate in what cannot be overstated, the purpose of implementing QE was to create economic conditions that conformed to the historical understanding of economic growth. If not so much 1995, Bernanke’s FOMC wanted to return .. read more