201507.28
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Economists Try To Find ‘Missing’ GDP Rather Than The Lost Economy

With the advance report on GDP for Q2 set to be released this week, economists are working hard to explain why it doesn’t represent the utopian delivery that they swear had already occurred via monetary intervention. There is, in immediate terms, the universal appearance of “residual seasonality” in the past few months as an almost…

201507.27
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New ‘Dollar’ Proxy Lows

The “dollar” problems continued this morning as several proxies continued toward new lows. Copper fell to as low as $2.342 (July contract still) while crude is down close to $47 in the front months. The back end of the WTI curve, perhaps more importantly with respect to growth and fundamentals tied to the “dollar”, fell…

201507.27
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Still Peering At Our Unstable Future

The old cliché is that everything of significance in life is a marathon rather than a sprint. In Japan, such sentiment strains all reason as there is no way that any marathon, economic or otherwise, could possibly be expected to last more twenty-five years. But here it is in 2015, thirty years after the Plaza…

201507.27
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Slump Completes Half Year With No End in Sight (And First Half Worse Than First Thought)

The benchmark revisions (trend-cycle) to durable goods left us with a smaller estimated economy but that wasn’t supposed to be a problem because all that matters supposedly is what comes next. In other words, the cycle was already deficient so the scale of that deficiency was not meant to suggest anything about the next phase,…

201507.23
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Agitating For A More Informed Inflation

There are numerous problems created by asset bubbles and many more as a result of a series of them. The financial system becomes highly destabilized, especially as authorities and policymaking bodies misunderstand them to the point of determined stasis rather than courting necessary evolution and reform, which in turn has the same effect on the…

201507.22
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Big Blue’s Close Experience With Dollars In Both Directions

IBM continues to be a bellwether assessment on domestic and global capex, though in 2015 almost everyone wishes it wasn’t. To that end, many have started to downgrade Big Blue based on age in the business cycle and, of course, currency. In many ways, the latest quarterly stumble is the mirror image of when all…

201507.20
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Eurodollar Time Evolution And QE/ZIRP Expectations

Sticking with the history of the “dollar” of these past two years, economists and gold de-buggers had to have been at least initially encouraged by what they saw outwardly of interest rates and related financial factors in 2013. Almost as soon as “taper” became a mainstream concept, right at the start of that May, the…

201507.17
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Apartment Construction Hits Orbit, Which Actually Might Not Be A Good Sign

The single family housing market, at least from the view of new construction, continues on as it has for the past two years. There isn’t really much taking place, as new construction plods along in a curious stasis, sort of continuing to scrape along the bottom of the barrel. Permits and starts were again near…

201507.17
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Japan Proving The Monetary Black Hole

Japanese household spending increased 5.5% in nominal terms in May; 4.8% in real spending growth. That was the first monthly increase since November and since it was a positive number, and not as typically close to zero, it is being hailed as another great sign of QQE success. With Q1 GDP revised up to nearly…

201507.15
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Stock Bubble And Its Buyback Genesis Suddenly Vulnerable

Having now passed the anniversary of the “rising dollar”, it is interesting to see the related and continued effects on the stock bubble(s). As should be obvious by now, stock buybacks, funded via corporate bonds and loosely categorized C&I loans, are responsible for the post-QE3 nearly uninterrupted rise. Repurchases are forming a separate “liquidity” conduit,…