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recession

One Lost Decade Or Three?

By |2015-12-21T16:57:06-05:00December 21st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the weekend, Charles Schwab issued a “tool” for investment advisors to help them “feel good” about what is expected for 2016. With investors increasingly talking about risk, and stock market risk at that, there is a counter-rush to reassure. Some of that is expected in places like this, but increasingly the disparity between the form of that encouragement and [...]

The Experiment Runs Out

By |2015-12-18T11:21:15-05:00December 18th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC at least still knows how to throw a party. It may not be what it once was, but for one day there was the familiar euphoria predicated upon the wish that central bankers might know something about anything. All-too-quickly, however, it vanished as it becomes increasingly clear, despite all attempts to rewrite this history, that there are no [...]

Vulnerable Stocks Question What Might Be Left of the Economy To Overheat

By |2015-12-17T13:31:59-05:00December 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For an economy that is supposed to be on the verge of overheating, or at least moving decisively in that direction, there are an inordinate number of indications of a cyclical stall and termination rather than some beginning (or ripening). I’m not referring exclusively to economic indications, either, such as the Federal Reserve’s own industrial production figure that just showed [...]

Physical Crude Demand Backs Fed’s IP Estimates, Not Fed’s Economic Outlook

By |2015-12-16T18:02:36-05:00December 16th, 2015|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like industrial production, the condition of oil inventory in the US was updated today in contradiction of the expectations driving Federal Reserve models expecting “transitory” weakness to simply pass into history. Unlike the virtual conditions for the FOMC, crude oil markets are obliged to respect both the eurodollar and the physical realities of physical commodities. Last week, the US EIA [...]

The Economy They Hope Or The Money That Is?

By |2015-12-16T16:37:47-05:00December 16th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Now that the FOMC has done it, we get to hear about how it was surely the “right” time for it. Unlike September, conditions are supposedly an order of magnitude more settled. That has given the policymaking economists the green light to make sure they start the normalization process before “overheating” becomes the central concern. With August a fading memory, [...]

Same Institution, Different Worlds: Fed Set To Declare Full Recovery On Same Day It Declares Recession Through IP

By |2015-12-16T12:24:45-05:00December 16th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is perhaps the perfect situational irony of this economic age, with the FOMC set to end its “emergency” policies by raising rates for the first time in a decade the very same day that the very same outfit, the Federal Reserve’s staff, just declared that the past cycle may have long since peaked. The monetary policy “exit” is a [...]

The Market Does The Fed’s Dirty Work

By |2015-12-13T16:21:11-05:00December 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Oil prices plunged, junk bonds hit a 2 ½ year low, stocks took a nearly 4% hit, a junk bond fund halted withdrawals, the country’s biggest pipeline operator cut its dividend by 75% and two of the biggest mining companies in the world suspended theirs completely. It was not a good week for financial markets. And the Fed meets to hike [...]

Manufacturing Is No 12%

By |2015-12-11T17:49:04-05:00December 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the problems with GDP as a statistical Swiss-Army knife for economic considerations is its very methodology. This doesn’t mean that there aren’t good and sound reasons for that kind of construction and presentation, only that in making such choices some elements are left out; even important pieces. In this case, I refer to the double counting problem which [...]

Retail Sales and Winter: Economic or Seasonal

By |2015-12-11T11:26:56-05:00December 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given that Black Friday weekend, including Thanksgiving itself, was uninspiring, the fact that the Commerce Department’s estimates for retail sales for all of November were again among the worst shows that Black Friday actually remains a pivotal part of the holiday setup. The trend has been to dismiss the traditional Christmas buying season kickoff as if earlier discounts might have [...]

Something Did Blow Up In Junk

By |2015-12-08T17:48:39-05:00December 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Now that Kinder Morgan has come out with a massive dividend cut, I think it will get harder to ignore that this isn’t just about crude oil prices and the death of “transitory.” There is a financial element here that is perhaps even more important. Kinder Morgan Inc., the biggest North American oil pipeline operator, cut its 2016 dividend by [...]

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