The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just [...]
Consumer credit is somewhat useful as a gauge for actual consumer behavior in actual activity, as opposed to consumer sentiment surveys which tend to follow stock prices (and be dominated by the upper incomes) and the theory on the “wealth effect.” In terms of the current “cycle”, or supercycle as it may be, sentiment and debt could not be further [...]
The March FOMC statement that caused a serious inflection in so many places was a reality check upon not monetary policy but economic fluency. In some ways it is subtle by design, but the changes made between the policy statement in January and that in March were more obvious and open. I have to wonder how much the then-surging “dollar” [...]
A stumble even in the Establishment Survey is not at all unexpected even in the best of times (in reality as opposed to purely statistical assumptions), however the furor unleashed over the March “weakness” is everything you need to know about how much surety rests within the estimate to begin with. Like human psychology, anyone who possesses a high degree [...]
If there is actually a tight correlation between jobless claims and the Establishment Survey, as I think there is, then we should expect tomorrow’s payroll report to be totally in-line with recent months. That would be despite all the growing negativity in economic accounts elsewhere, but I think it is more and more apparent that trend-cycle analysis (or guesses) is [...]
In viewing incoming data for January, it looked as if the “dollar” being exactly right about the US economy’s place within the falling global economy was increasingly correct. At that time, the declines in many accounts were way beyond even what we saw of 2014’s “snowy” disruption. That itself suggested that any repeat in 2015 was more than simple repetition, [...]
Usually references to April 15 are reserved for income taxes, but in this case that preference may be superseded. Recognizing the illiquidity pattern of the “rising dollar” means being vigilant toward the next expected instance. If October 15 was an “event” followed by January 15 in succession, then it is reasonable to at least anticipate conditions for April 15. To [...]
The continued disappointment of economic data is starting to weigh, but only as concerns might be directed toward Q1. Despite all projections for a sharp rebound after January’s dreariness, February figures continue on the downside and now March indications are not much better. The latest is the ISM Chicago Business Barometer (formerly Chicago PMI) which remained in significant contraction for [...]
Coincident to the “final” release of quarterly GDP are the updated estimates for corporate profits. While the Q4 headline didn’t much alter from the preliminary version sent out a month ago, there was much in the profit section relevant to both economic cycle and structure. The BEA provides several different breakouts of business profits, but the main emphasis should remain [...]
Taking a look back at economic projections from orthodox models (and the theories they incorporate and encompass) is more than just a review of past econometric failures. That is the most obvious component as the ability of mainstream models to forecast actual economic conditions is inarguably flawed beyond repair. That calls into question, certainly, current outlooks based upon the same [...]
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