For now, it seems as if the attempt to recreate 2005 is being born by revolving credit. There was, until the middle of last year, the holdover hope for the then-burgeoning mini-bubble in real estate, but events since the taper-driven bond selloff have conspired against that factor. While revolving credit might represent a restarted channel for monetary intrusiveness, the primary [...]
The BLS updated its figures for economic and labor productivity, including the revisions for the first quarter. As it stood prior, the calculation for productivity was among the worst of the past four decades. Given that GDP was already revised lower in the interim, that meant that productivity estimates were going be also sent further downward. Since productivity is a [...]
Wholesales sales and inventories are still relatively better in June than earlier in the year, though the level of inventory looks nothing like what is being counted for GDP. Overall, the pace of sales continues to be relatively stuck in a low-growth track that shows little signs of being elevated. For an economy being determined marginally by inventory, supply chain [...]
With a growing “meat” scandal in China and elsewhere in Asia, it was not unsurprising to see McDonald’s post a sizable decline in same store sales in the region. The latest figures from July show exactly that, posting a 7.3% decline over July 2013. That compared to a 1.9% decline last year from July 2012, so there is likely a [...]
I saw this today and was astounded by it, though not at all surprised given my take on the economy. ZeroHedge reports on Bank of America calculating car leasing vs. car buying: So with car sales through the roof, the US consumer must be alive and well, right? Wrong, because there is one problem: it is car "sales" not sales. [...]
There is a lot that is deficient about the idea of the plucking model, but that speaks more about its mainstream use as a “law” of economic behavior than the elegant and intuitive simplicity behind it. Its primary observation is that a recession is the temporary interruption of the larger trend of economic advancement. What is missing lately in the [...]
While the orthodoxy continues to try to reassure everyone that the economy is still moving to plan, revised innumerably over the years imperceptible as progress has been, there are signs that even mainstream outlets are at least starting to question whether or not that is actually preferable. Not a lot of dots are connected yet, and certainly not from A [...]
With all due respect to durable goods, perhaps I was a bit too hasty in assigning it the moniker of most boring. There is certainly competition now, as the monthly payroll euphoria has become just as homogenous, curiously, and engrained enough where commentary can simply be copied and pasted from month-to-month. Most people probably will not recall that such regularity [...]
Following up with some more detail on yesterday’s GDP euphoria, a closer examination reveals that not much has changed beneath the headline refiguring. Again, I highly doubt the 3.9% (plus some rounding) survives further estimations, but that really doesn’t much matter at this point. Whether it ultimately arrives at 5% or 2% won’t change the trends that are embedded beneath [...]
I normally do everything I can to avoid sentiment surveys, like the Chicago PMI (the Chicago Business Barometer to be specific), because they really are misleading without exact context. However, any large move like the one in July should bring at least some interest since outlier events are often the most informative. What may be important is not necessarily the [...]
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