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Is It Over?

By |2018-05-01T17:10:13-04:00May 1st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the time and a constant part of analysis, trying to identify and separate what is truly contained. The global eurodollar monetary system grew so far and so fast in [...]

Can’t Forget About Dealers

By |2017-08-15T17:11:48-04:00August 15th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913, there was no role for it in the marketing and selling of government debt. This wasn’t an oversight on the part of Congress. For more than two years before the Fed, the Treasury Department hadn’t issued any marketable instruments at all. In those days it just didn’t seem a necessary function. World [...]

JPY Joins EDM; End of Week Chart Dump

By |2017-08-11T19:12:17-04:00August 11th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Brexit, Trump’s election, even the Bank of Japan rumored to be thinking helicopter. Last year was the year of thinking differently and therein was hope. No matter how many times some markets and especially media blindly accepted the “stimulus” or “recovery” judgments of economists over the years, by 2016 and the near-recession globally that accompanied a “rising dollar” that nobody [...]

Almost Ten Years And Still Nits To Pick

By |2017-08-04T19:17:26-04:00August 4th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy was sailing along into its Hollywood sunset in 2014 before it was rudely interrupted by the “rising dollar.” At first, the mainstream narrative was that a higher dollar exchange was a good thing, an indication that global markets were embracing the economic revival; or, if you didn’t quite want to get that optimistic, it at least signaled the [...]

RHINO

By |2016-12-29T09:45:24-05:00December 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is a repost; originally published Dec. 22, 2016. The federal funds rate target is essentially nothing more than a communication tool. You don’t have to take my word for it, the same conclusion has been reached at the level of the FOMC itself. There was, in fact, some debate, though limited in scope, in 2013 and 2014 about changing [...]

Rising Dollar = Dollar Shortage = Global Liquidity Shortage

By |2016-11-30T14:17:00-05:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before October 1997, what would become known as the Asian flu was just another opportunity for the mainstream to dismiss what many people, including many prominent, competent people, had been warning about for years before. The usual refrain thrown back at them was some form of “you are missing out.” People, of course, never really learn from these episodes because [...]

More Deutsche Bank Attention Means Even Less ‘Dollars’

By |2016-09-29T17:11:24-04:00September 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems as if Deutsche Bank is on everyone’s mind, even if nobody knows exactly why. Stocks were down today which is really unremarkable but has become so by the standards of just this year where nothing bad is supposed to be able to intrude. That aside, the news from Germany was quite unnerving. Bloomberg reported early this afternoon that [...]

A (Significant) Tale Of Two Banks

By |2016-09-27T13:20:32-04:00September 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On August 31, 2008, Germany’s Commerzbank announced that it was purchasing ailing rival Dresdner Bank from Allianz SE. As usual, however, the deal wasn’t described in those terms as nothing ever is so honest in public. Then-Allianz CEO Michael Diekmann said at the time of the announcement: As a strong bank, the new company can safeguard jobs in the long [...]

The Dollar Perspective Matters

By |2016-09-26T18:01:26-04:00September 26th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps the hardest part of analyzing the eurodollar system is synchronizing all its various dimensions into a common perspective. Coming from the traditional standpoint that views all these various parts as if they are all separate, such a task is often quite difficult. For example, the repo market is almost always described from the cash perspective as if there only [...]

Why It’s Not Really About Deutsche: Overwhelming Evidence of ‘Something’ In ‘Dollars’

By |2016-09-26T16:48:28-04:00September 26th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For quite some time now I have been writing (constantly) about “something” going in “dollar” markets and funding markets all over the world. Chinese markets related to “dollars” have been the most prominent in their disorder, but there is a degree of causation that runs from eurodollars to China and perhaps back again. In other words, Chinese illiquidity is not [...]

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