While I would love to be talking about the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game, or at least the addition of some kind of competency in some form (any) for the team, this post is dedicated instead to the newest mechanics in treasury bills. The most recent 4-week bill auction went off at 0.0%, in a string of zero [...]
The taper-driven bond selloff in May/June related to tightening in eurodollars and funding markets. As we know now, dollar conditions were extreme in some cases, leading to desperate turmoil across the globe. From the TIC flows, the pace of selling of dollar assets by foreign holders was epic back in June. What that tells us is foreign holders were unable [...]
Retail flows, in my analysis, having absorbed any minor trepidation from the debt ceiling and shut down, are seemingly positioned as if taper and monetary policy are back to last year’s unlimited promises. That may very well be the case, though it does not appear as if institutional positioning agrees. In my mind, the MBS and UST portions of the [...]
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