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retail trade

No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally Synchronized.

By |2022-06-03T20:25:43-04:00June 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on.In America, the [...]

Can’t Blame COVID For This One

By |2022-06-01T20:16:42-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Late in March 2021, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a reverse. Several weeks before that time, Merkel’s federal government had reached an agreement with the various states to begin opening the country back up, easing more modest restrictions to move daily life closer to normal. But with case counts sharply rising once more, the whole thing was going to get [...]

Produzentenfenster Globale Rezessionsuhr

By |2022-04-12T20:08:31-04:00April 12th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

German optimism was predictably, inevitably sent crashing in March and April 2022. According to that country’s ZEW survey, an uptick in general optimism from November 2021 to February 2022 collided with the reality of Russian armored vehicles trying to snake their way down to Kiev. Whereas sentiment had rebounded from an October low of 22.3, blamed on whichever of the [...]

Speaking Volumes Rather Than Fast Rate Hikes

By |2022-04-08T17:39:41-04:00April 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The price illusion. It is causing enormous confusion and difficulty, making the global economy out to be something it really isn’t. In fact, the whole situation is being viewed backward. What’s presumed from this is a red-hot economy causing consumer prices to skyrocket. In such a scenario, central banks might need to rush their rate hikes to cool it down [...]

Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

By |2021-12-16T19:16:24-05:00December 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure. Instead, they seemed to further indicate only what we had proposed upon release of the October estimates: Christmas shopping came a bit early for [...]

Christmas Comes (too?) Early

By |2021-11-16T19:01:03-05:00November 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It began all the way back during the summer. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Singapore in August hosting a gathering of business leaders. Supply issues naturally came up, and the VP warned: The stories that we are now hearing about the caution that if you want to have Christmas toys for your children it might be the time to [...]

Europe Losing Momentum With Its Biggest Positives Ever

By |2020-07-08T19:55:30-04:00July 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Italy had been one of hardest hit countries, if not the worst for a good while. For months rather than weeks, life was shut down in an effort to get ahead of COVID-19 while it ravaged seemingly unchecked. It became a buzzword of sorts, the name of the nation synonymous with the pandemic itself. Don’t be Italy.As a result, the [...]

If Some Economists Are No Longer Buying It

By |2020-02-26T17:26:35-05:00February 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz ignited and invited controversy today when he signaled that the federal government is looking at a possible suspension to constitutional budget measures. With a nasty political fight certain to follow, even temporarily adjourning the country’s so-called debt brake would not be easy. With Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party already in a precarious position, one might wonder, [...]

The Road To July Rate Cut Runs Through the Brazilian Zone

By |2019-06-28T18:13:18-04:00June 28th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The way I look at the global economy, there are basically five different zones. The first is the US and the second is Europe. China might be third on this list but often second if not first in terms of what’s driving marginal changes. In behind those is Japan, not what it once was but still often a bellwether for [...]

No Sign of Consumer Acceleration Even With Retail Sales at 5%

By |2016-12-14T12:23:29-05:00December 14th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a 5% month for retail sales, the second such month this year. Overall retail sales grew by 5.3% year-over-year (NSA) in November 2016, the best growth since February. Ex autos, retail sales were up 5.1%, while retail trade expanded by 5.3%. These results, however, follow one of the weaker months of the entire data series, October, suggesting again [...]

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