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What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

By |2021-10-25T17:41:17-04:00October 25th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods. Shortage [...]

Full Employment Math: 2 + 2 = 5

By |2016-06-14T18:04:55-04:00June 14th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inventory is an exceedingly simple concept spaced between the most basic economic fundamentals. Because the modern economy operates upon mass production, the flow of goods is not direct. Thus, there are structural differences between demand and supply, with inventory as the pivot in between. If end demand rises it still gets filled even though production cannot respond instantaneously (no matter [...]

The Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It ‘Should’ Be

By |2016-04-22T16:11:20-04:00April 22nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The mainstream view of the unemployment statistics suggest that any weakness in the US economy, manufacturing or beyond, will be temporary and shallow because employment growth remains robust. The question is not whether the statistics suggest such a trend but rather if those accounts correspond with anything real. As noted earlier this week, even the Federal Reserve’s relatively new measure [...]

Manufacturers Sales, Inventory All Bad But BLS Says They Are Still Hiring

By |2016-02-12T13:24:10-05:00February 12th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the release of retail sales, the estimates for inventory across the whole supply chain are completed for December. The inventory-to-sales ratio for total business rose yet again to 1.39; the last time the series was that out of balance was May 2009, a ratio higher than what was registered in October 2008. The ratio for the manufacturing level surged [...]

Inventory From Insane to Only Average

By |2014-07-01T14:52:21-04:00July 1st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the primary factors pulling down the economy in the first quarter was, of course, inventory. There had been an epic surge in the middle of last year that made it all the way to Christmastime, only to have anticipated consumer strength “mysteriously” never appear. But that actually creates a bit of a misconception, as with a lot of [...]

Commodity Prices Look to Confirm

By |2013-05-09T11:35:26-04:00May 9th, 2013|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Following up on the global trade warning out of Australia, commodity prices are acting as another corroborating piece of the global slowdown. Typically, copper acts as a decent barometer of global manufacturing activity, earning the nickname Dr. Copper. Copper prices have slumped recently, moving back to the lows of mid-2011 (just before the European re-recession emerged). What is more amazing, [...]

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