It seems a very long way from here, but it was only December 23rd when the economy was taken as “booming.” That was the day that excited economists under direct confirmation, allegedly, that this time was different. The Commerce Department had reported Q3 GDP up to 5%, raising estimates for business investment and consumer spending. The recovery had arrived, at [...]
WalMart finally broke its losing streak in same store comparable sales. Beating expectations, US comps rose 0.5% vs. the same 13 weeks in 2013. That must mean the consumer is resilient once more? While there is certainly no scale in the positive figure for Q3 (the 13 weeks ended October 31) the trend seems to be moving in the “right” [...]
While the election confirmed the economic perspective of workers and small businesses, in a lot of ways big business has seen nothing different. In fact, apart from monetary-driven incentives, the two views of dysfunction are very much linked. While profit gains have generally been solid, many blue-chip companies are posting weak sales growth or outright year-over-year revenue declines, causing worries [...]
IBM blames the cloud for its dismal results, but the fact is that IBM should own the cloud outright (figuratively, of course). If the business has changed so much in the past few years due to customer shifting, then why wasn’t IBM leading that process? Why are they now actually admitting what amounts to a dereliction of managerial duties? Since [...]
There are a great many difference between small cap companies (and their stocks) and large cap companies, especially mega cap (and their stocks). That in mind, investors predisposed toward the S&P 500 are rightfully watchful of the Russell 2000. While factors displacing the latter into a technical “correction” may be idiosyncratic, no one can deny the possibility of broader implications. [...]
Continuing on with the valuation theme, there are a couple of additional “market” indicators that are also at or above dot-com levels. While not strictly a valuation technique, the level of margin debt and really customer net worth gives us an insight into one aspect of multiple expansion. Margin debt for FINRA accounts (which includes both NYSE and what used [...]
The biggest thorn in the recovery narrative, or whatever it is that the FOMC claims is guiding its hand, is that consumers are not spending as they “should” under such circumstances. Retail sales not only have disappointed this year, bookended by “unexpected” weather on one and an as-yet excused position for the other, they are downright awful. That is confirmed [...]
Nearly all (97.5%) of the S&P 500 companies have reported for the first quarter. EPS for the index companies stumbled rather spectacularly, though weather is being blamed for nearly all of it. Back on January 23, index EPS in Q1 was expected at around $29.40 (as reported). As of the latest update, EPS is only at $24.79, a 15% miss [...]
McDonald’s latest results confirm that something is very much amiss on the consumer side. Total global revenue grew only 1% Y/Y, including new store launches and acquisitions. However, as has been the pattern since 2012, US comparable store sales lagged markedly. The rate of contraction in Q1 was actually the worst in more than a decade. Even if you believe [...]
Related to yesterday’s observations about corporate cash, the broken record of IBM revenue continues to demonstrate the unwillingness of American businesses to freely spend on capex. While attention continues to focus on China and Asian results, not without good reason, the domestic and larger “Americas” segment continues to drag. Revenue in China is down 20% Y/Y, reflecting both economic and [...]
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