fbpx

rising dollar

The Top of GDP

By |2018-07-24T16:59:45-04:00July 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming. It also helped that [...]

Retail Sales Still In The Green

By |2018-07-16T12:01:24-04:00July 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It would be easier if we could just know the right amount of oil futures backwardation. The literal answer for the question of what’s the correct level is the curve’s shape at any given moment in time. That’s a little too close to the theory of perfectly efficient markets for me. Whatever it may be, or could be, the WTI [...]

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

By |2018-07-03T11:50:35-04:00July 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese officials are getting nervous. Everyone knows that whenever your favorite sports team struggles and fans are calling for the head coach’s head, any owner or general manager who then issues the dreaded (from the coach’s perspective) vote of confidence is essentially sealing his fate. PBOC Governor Yi Gang issued a similar sort of statement today. CNY is in freefall, [...]

The Money of Metals; More Gold Beyond Repo

By |2018-06-26T17:23:11-04:00June 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In all honesty, I do mean to beat this one particular dead horse. In fact, I intend to pulverize it until there is nothing left but the smallest particulate matter. This is everything that is wrong with how things are right now. Either they are willing to put out what could only be legitimately classified as outright propaganda (lies), or [...]

The Money Of Metals; Or, Inferring Collateral Beyond Repo

By |2018-06-26T13:07:36-04:00June 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a wild month for copper. June began normal enough for the metal, with the front month futures price (HG1) still ~$3.05 where it had traded since early March. Then, out of nowhere, the price surged. Starting June 4, in a matter of days HG1 was just less than $3.30. It was the highest price of the year and [...]

EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

By |2018-06-22T16:09:37-04:00June 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their practice impractical evidence. It’s all [...]

Where Innovation Just Doesn’t Belong

By |2018-06-22T11:54:18-04:00June 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some things are not supposed to be innovative. It’s no surprise that given the high technology of our modern lives that modern humans tend to be drawn to the new and shiny. We’ve marked the advance of society along the lines of big leaps in understanding and doing. Quite easily, we can get lost equating the two, thinking every innovation [...]

That Didn’t Take Long (UPDATE)

By |2018-06-21T16:38:28-04:00June 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t know if I should make this a regular feature or not, but IOER is the one monetary policy factor that maybe is easiest enough to understand and therefore the quickest route for the public to get to they really don’t know what they are doing. Federal funds aren’t some obscure way off policy goal, it’s the very lever [...]

That Didn’t Take Long

By |2018-06-20T18:04:24-04:00June 20th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

That didn’t take long. The Fed’s IOER scheme lasted all of three trading session. That it was broken yesterday of all recent days isn’t surprising, at least when you realize the full range of things going on yesterday. First, a review: The issue this week, perhaps, is again EFF only this time the effective rate is pushing a little too [...]

BoJ Blames Amazon; Or, What A Difference A Few Months Make

By |2018-06-18T13:21:02-04:00June 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Japan gathered its policymaking members in Tokyo at the end of last week. The statements released and the commentary given pursuant to it exuded a renewed darkness. When they had last met on April 26 and 27, things were already different. But the conclave before that, March 8 and 9, they were practically giddy. What a difference [...]

Go to Top