On December 3, 1999, Enron Communications announced that the company had begun operations selling bandwidth as an energy commodity. After publicizing the venture in May that year, it seemed natural given that they had been selling similar products in the energy sector, pioneering all sorts of products along the way. As the internet matured there was no way Enron would [...]
What is about math that makes us feel comforted? Numbers are objective, of course, but the using of numbers is not. Even in the hard sciences calculations are not strictly calculations for their own sake, they are interpreted and therefore given subjective meaning. I don’t intend to detour this argument into a teleological one, but in some ways that just [...]
The average annual change in the WTI benchmark price was in April about 25%. That was still a sizable increase year-over-year, and just marginally less than March’s average of 33%. For calculated inflation rates, it represents the last of the base effects that have to this point made it appear as if economic improvement was possibly serious. Combined with the [...]
The advance estimate for GDP is scheduled for release tomorrow, and by current estimates it should be a total washout. Yet another first quarter is expected to be a disaster, the fourth in a row and the third straight under the “residual seasonality” regime that was supposed to reveal the hidden economic strength obscured by recent winters. Unlike 2014, however, [...]
According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment. They are, however, still selling. In February 2017, the latest month available, the foreign official sector disposed of [...]
In June 2012, Janet Yellen, then the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, addressed an audience in Boston with what for the time seemed like a radical departure. It was the latest in a string of them, for conditions throughout the “recovery” period never did quite seem to hit the recovery stride. Because of that, there was constant stream of [...]
In the early trading on Friday, it looked as if “reflation” might break down entirely. The flurry of information seemed to be uniformly bad, from Syria to payrolls there wasn’t much for optimism to remain relevant. All of a sudden, however, it all reversed so that trading in the latter part of the day was as if related to an [...]
More than ten years after Alan Greenspan confessed to not understanding bonds and interest rates, the same assumptions that underpinned Greenspan’s “conundrum” remain as convention. If the Fed raises the federal funds rate by target or by corridor, then all rates should rise. It is believed to be just that simple, a fact (the belief) further established this week by [...]
We had become either sensitive or desensitized, depending on your definitions, to quarter ends full of turmoil and intrigue. In the monetary world, especially last year, each of the four seemed more interesting than the one preceding it – which was saying something given the state of the world during that time. Most of all, however, it was especially striking [...]
It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official explanation is an obvious whitewash, one so haphazard that I doubt it will ever [...]
Stay In Touch