The cruelest part, perhaps, of this economic condition globally is how it plays against type. In all prior cycles, economies of all kinds and orientations all over the globe would go into recession and then bounce right of it once at the bottom. It was often difficult to see the bottom, of course, but once recovery happened there was no [...]
China’s Foreign Exchange Agency reported a $12 billion drawdown in that country’s foreign “reserves” holdings during January 2017. That was considerably less than the past three months, where all three saw more than $40 billion pulled out, nearly $70 billion in just November. These results are not in any way surprising, and are actually quite consistent with observed behavior during [...]
In May 1999, Milton Friedman gave an interview to Forbes Magazine back when it was an actual magazine. It was an auspicious time, of course, and what he had to say then resonated, though as much in an unflattering way as that which might reflect well on him. But we are not commit the logical fallacy so often deployed to [...]
Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress on May 22, 2013, that taper was for officials a strong consideration. Though QE4, the UST portion of the restored balance sheet expansion, wasn’t yet six months old and he had promised, sort of, at the start of QE3 that both would be open-ended, sort of, his message to the legislature was [...]
The updated estimates from the BLS for its JOLTS data largely confirm observations from other labor markets figures. The rate of Job Openings in November 2016 was slightly more than October, but still not appreciably different than what it has been over the past two years. The JOLTS survey indicated Job Openings first reached 5.5 million for the first time [...]
With two months of an increasing index, the Federal Reserve’s alternate, comprehensive factor model for the labor market turned negative again for December 2016. The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) was down 0.3 points after gaining an upwardly revised 2.1 in November. Though there are 19 components in the overall index, the lackluster headline number for the Establishment Survey as [...]
Canada’s economy remains the distinct enigma of the developed world, where the binary business cycle breakdown is perhaps most conspicuous. When oil prices first crashed to end 2014 and start 2015, even economists expected Canada’s economy to suffer, so exposed as it was and remains to the energy sector. But after two rough quarters to begin last year, that was [...]
The Census Bureau reported last week that durable goods (ex transportation) shipments were up 2.4% in November year-over-year (NSA). It was the third time in the past ten months that shipments have risen, and the highest growth rate since December 2014. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) were also up, +3.3%, the fourth time this year. Rather than suggest [...]
In September 2013, the BIS took a closer look at offshore corporate issuance of EM obligors. The timing could not have been more relevant, which was very likely their point in undertaking the difficult exercise. The “taper tantrum” that summer had roiled domestic bond markets in the US, but was really focused in the offshore sections of the “dollar” system. [...]
Clichés are clichés for a reason, largely because their meaning no longer requires precision in order to communicate information. Because of that, their use is usually limited to cultural exchanges, being largely shunned in areas when technical proficiency requires a high level of exactitude. Economics and finance in more recent years, really since August 2007, seemed to have shifted more [...]
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