Unwelcome August

By |2018-08-13T16:58:51+00:00August 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even [...]


By |2015-12-14T11:47:02+00:00December 14th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t much commentary needed here, as the prices and yields indicate everything relevant and important. I would only add that seeing August 24, October 15 and now the change (in acceleration) in December all add up to something different than the FOMC’s whatever influence. There is no monetary policy reason for the August 24 [...]

The Quick Burn of Balance Sheet Capacity Is the Recovery’s Mangled End

By |2015-11-06T17:13:40+00:00November 6th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or [...]

Now the Franc

By |2015-10-13T14:14:19+00:00October 13th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves [...]

Is The ‘Dollar’ Missing Something This Week?

By |2015-10-06T17:36:37+00:00October 6th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and [...]

Not Discrete Economic Messes, But Ongoing Global Financial Violence

By |2015-09-23T13:02:37+00:00September 23rd, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If for the Asian “dollar”, then China’s inability to place an economic bottom is a problem for every market and economy. The more hopeful mainstream rhetoric from the summer is now gone, just as the “dollar” would have it. China’s variations have far too closely matched these “dollar” waves which, in the midst of another, [...]

Brazil Counts For, And Explains, A Lot

By |2015-09-03T14:02:14+00:00September 3rd, 2015|Markets|

Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. [...]

When The Yen Was A Last Resort Safety Bid, You Know It Was Bad

By |2015-08-27T15:05:02+00:00August 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It looks like the reversal of Monday’s dramatic and frightful liquidation has held and gained in the past two days. From that we can infer, of only the near-term, that those forced repositions were enough to square the liquidity imbalance from the latest “dollar” run. The two words are related not just in a common [...]