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Russell 2000

Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

By |2022-03-14T07:46:24-04:00March 13th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I don't know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don't know what will happen in Ukraine. I don't know how much what has already happened there - and what might - matters to the US and global economy. I don't know if the Fed is making a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Zooming Out

By |2021-10-04T07:35:32-04:00October 3rd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

How often do you check your brokerage account? There is a famous economics paper from 1997, written by some of the giants in behavioral finance (Thaler, Kahnemann, Tversky & Schwartz), that tested what is known as myopic loss aversion. What they found was that investors who check their performance less frequently are more willing to take risk and experience higher [...]

It’s Not As Obvious, But Stocks Are Tipped More Toward ‘Deflation’, Too

By |2020-08-19T17:31:57-04:00August 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You have to laugh at the absurdity of the puppet show theater. A few months ago when bond yields backed up a little bit, as they do from time to time, everyone from Bond Kings to Dollar Crash-ists to Economists to just about every writer at the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg became fixated on yield caps (or yield curve [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:26-04:00June 18th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Markets|

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a [...]

Rose Colored Glasses

By |2015-07-19T17:18:53-04:00July 19th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream. Edgar Allan Poe   All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth. Friedrich Nietzsche   I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out. Steven Wright I think one of the [...]

Stock Bubble And Its Buyback Genesis Suddenly Vulnerable

By |2015-07-15T17:16:06-04:00July 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Having now passed the anniversary of the “rising dollar”, it is interesting to see the related and continued effects on the stock bubble(s). As should be obvious by now, stock buybacks, funded via corporate bonds and loosely categorized C&I loans, are responsible for the post-QE3 nearly uninterrupted rise. Repurchases are forming a separate “liquidity” conduit, indirect leverage if you will, [...]

Why Bubbles Are Being Recognized

By |2014-11-12T13:12:15-05:00November 12th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The nature of liquidity under the eurodollar standard is to essentially link “markets” that outwardly seem to have little or no relation. You can see the synchronized ups and downs quite clearly but miss the ultimate connection, especially under the orthodox assumption of the world’s economies and their “natural” finance as mostly closed systems with only tenuous associations. If that [...]

Dirty Shirts Are Dirty Shirts

By |2014-10-14T12:40:20-04:00October 14th, 2014|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

There was some pretty bad news out of Germany last night. The nations’ Economy Ministry cut its growth forecast for 2014 by a third (from an unsatisfying 1.8% to a worrisome 1.2%), which is more than a little coming this late in the year. In addition, the closely watched ZEW survey (I don’t watch it, but “markets” are fixated) fell [...]

The Dollar And Now Stocks

By |2014-10-13T13:20:08-04:00October 13th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The big “trick” with liquidity is trying to discern and work out “where” and “when.” A good deal of that is about liquidity as it actually exists; not what you see today but what it may look like tomorrow. That vital disparity can be nothing but havoc, especially when conditioned to look at correlations as something durable – which is [...]

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