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selling UST’s

Another Big ‘Ide’ To Add To Deflation’s March

By |2021-08-02T19:47:57-04:00August 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s another foreign angle to the grave misconceptions about what overseas financial entities are doing, and are made to do, with specifically US Treasury assets (and overall US$ assets more broadly). The American public, anyway, has wrongly been led to believe that those outside the US must hate the US and its dollar; at least its recklessly spendthrift government. None [...]

Quarrel With Quarles Over Too Little, Not Too Many

By |2020-10-27T17:14:09-04:00October 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the first time the ground had already been eroding underneath his feet. Randall Quarles took at turn at the Treasury Department during the Bush Administration, rising to Undersecretary for Domestic Finance during the most maniacal part of the eurodollar-fueled housing bubble. Not surprisingly, among the last things he did there was tell the public how great everything was [...]

TIC Rolling Over Would Mean Other Things Having Rolled Over

By |2019-12-16T19:06:27-05:00December 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the latest TIC estimates from the Treasury Department, foreign governments continued their heavy selling of US Treasuries. During the month of October 2019, the most recent data, the official sector disposed of more than $40 billion of those securities on net. It was the third straight month of substantial declines. Some observers try to link this kind of [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:14:56-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary issues. It’s all given a [...]

Chart of The Week: TICsense

By |2019-02-15T17:32:51-05:00February 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

TIC update for December 2018. Given what happened in that particular month, yeah, this seems about right: Here’s the same thing smoothed out on a 6-month basis. Plus an added reminder. Just to refresh: That’s a shame because TIC will tell you so much more about the global economy and the changes taking place within it than the Establishment Survey [...]

Unfortunately An ‘Official’ End To The Rising Dollar Isn’t More

By |2017-05-17T19:15:03-04:00May 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

TIC data confirms that “reflation” captured more than just pricing sentiment. It appears to have occurred in bank balance sheet activity, and related official sector UST transactions. As to the latter, official holdings of US$ assets did decline on net in March 2017, the latest figures, including more selling of UST’s. The scale of the decline was less than we [...]

Raising The Stakes, But Not The Level of Understanding

By |2017-02-07T18:54:22-05:00February 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s Foreign Exchange Agency reported a $12 billion drawdown in that country’s foreign “reserves” holdings during January 2017. That was considerably less than the past three months, where all three saw more than $40 billion pulled out, nearly $70 billion in just November. These results are not in any way surprising, and are actually quite consistent with observed behavior during [...]

TIC Update As Usual Offers Confirmation And Maybe A Warning

By |2016-05-20T16:05:32-04:00May 20th, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Treasury Department’s updated official custody figures show us nothing unexpected. As usual, the TIC numbers are useful more so in corroboration of what contemporary analysis had already described. In the case of March 2016, we find just the sort of apparent reduction in “dollar” pressure that matches observation of general global conditions after February. Total net “flow” was +$64.7 [...]

The ‘Mystery’ in TIC Is Likely Important Given These Big Numbers

By |2016-03-29T17:44:35-04:00March 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all the ways that were expected [...]

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