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shrunken economy

A Simple Choice

By |2018-09-12T16:17:44-04:00September 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it a shortage of workers, or a shortage of work? Structural issues with Americans and who they are, or macro issues about which Americans have been fed a load of crap for more than a decade? You can see why those who may have been manufacturing raw manure might have an interest in swaying the debate toward the structural. [...]

Full Wages

By |2016-02-05T13:28:39-05:00February 5th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite the disappointing headline Establishment Survey estimate, those inclined to believe the payroll report as an overall economic narrative had two fallback issues. U.S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but surging wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labor market recovery remains firm. [...]

Full Employment

By |2016-02-05T12:27:10-05:00February 5th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The headline Establishment Survey number disappointed at just 151k in January. The figure does not represent the actual amount of jobs gained, of course, since employment in January is typically about 3 million less than December. What that estimate represents is a combination of imputations about seasonality (comparing the actual change in the data set to the “typical” decline December [...]

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