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sloos

Buckets and Tookits, Empty Each

By |2020-08-05T17:17:55-04:00August 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s incredible, in a way, because right from the start he’s got everything on his side. There are the media write-ups which all say the exact same thing, calling this an exact science being practiced by the wisest, most considerate stewards. The legend we’ve been raised with. Lore and scholarship (I repeat myself). Most of all, everyone. When everyone says [...]

Not COVID-19, Watch For The Second Wave of GFC2

By |2020-06-23T16:51:18-04:00June 23rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I guess in some ways it’s a race against the clock. What the optimists are really saying is the equivalent of the old eighties neo-Keynesian notion of filling in the troughs. That’s what government spending and monetary “stimulus” intend to accomplish, to limit the downside in a bid to buy time. Time for what? The economy to heal on its [...]

What’s On Second, I Don’t Know Left Third

By |2020-05-08T19:19:03-04:00May 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it really that simple? The central bank hands out “free” money or “supports” markets with purchases, so that’s all there is to it. Once Jay Powell or Christine Lagarde moves in with the big bazookas, who’s not going to climb on board the money train as it rockets out of the inflation station?If only Weimar was that easy. Easy [...]

We All Know Who’s On First, But What’s On Second?

By |2020-05-06T16:37:30-04:00May 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t entirely unexpected, though when it was announced it was still quite a lot to take in. On September 1, 2005, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the nation’s personal savings rate had turned negative during the month of July. The press release announcing the number, in trying to explain the result was reduced instead to a [...]

Don’t Forget (Business) Credit

By |2020-02-04T16:00:10-05:00February 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Rolling over in credit stats, particularly business debt, is never a good thing for an economy. As noted yesterday, in Europe it’s not definite yet but sure is pronounced. The pattern is pretty clear even if we don’t ultimately know how it will play out from here. The process of reversing is at least already happening and so we are [...]

Materially Slowed SLOOS

By |2019-05-06T18:17:18-04:00May 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More US bank respondents reported to the Federal Reserve that they are seeing weaker demand for Commercial & Industrial Loans than at any time since the end of the Great “Recession.” The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) asks respondents to gauge certain factors with regard to various forms of lending. In terms of new debt [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Borrow And Build

By |2018-11-15T18:01:36-05:00November 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We often forget, the middle 2000’s was not uniquely a housing bubble. It commanded our attention because that’s what ended up affecting so many Americans personally; whether foreclosures or just the negative “wealth effect” of declining real estate values. This was also pretty easy to understand, an asset bubble though complicated in its full manifestations intuitive as a result. There [...]

SLOOS Answers The Boom

By |2018-02-13T19:06:13-05:00February 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You find lots of tortured arguments about the state of the economy, largely because the premise starts with the boom and then seeks to find it. If it isn’t currently visible in the data, there is unusual and unearned confidence that the data will have to change in the near future (rather than the past three times we’ve been through [...]

Given Past Few Years, C&I Slowdown Isn’t At All Surprising

By |2017-06-12T18:35:45-04:00June 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t much data available on the mechanics of lending or the other side of it borrowing. It’s a topic of interest nonetheless given the crucial role (sadly) of debt in determining the marginal economic direction (second derivative). A financialized economy is a drag without credit growth. One of the more encouraging signs on that account was an acceleration of [...]

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