Last year, economists were fed up with winter. They had had enough of Q1’s always lagging, threatening to upend the idea that there is a solid and improving recovery. To drop a negative GDP quarter into that mix was the final straw, since negative quarters are exceedingly rare – they actually don’t occur outside of recession. In the four decades [...]
There were a lot of references to the top-line durable goods figure, which was better at 4% in March, but surprisingly almost every piece of commentary was acquiescent to the very disappointing internals. If there was weather depression in the Q1 “slump” so far, it should have abated in March and kicked off an unmistakable rebound –that was the expectation. [...]
This post will include an excess of charts and graphs, ostensibly to put to rest any weather notions as well as highlight the macro component of what is clearly economic dysfunction. The beginning of 2013 was bad in its own right, but the excuses laid then pertained to QE’s lag (as well as winter grumbling). Since QE3 wasn’t inaugurated until [...]
It seems like January has been associated with adverse weather for as long as January has existed. I think even the simple folk that lived in more agrarian times were aware that winter tended to be very evident in January, and could vary in intensity from year to year. Jean-Paul Sartre realized the impact of January weather when he said, [...]
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