Stocks Got Historically Expensive
The Federal Reserve released its calculations for the Flow of Funds Report (Z1) for the first quarter of 2013. That means we can update the Tobin’s Q and our modified Q for the latest figures. As expected, stock prices accelerated through March 31, at a rate much faster than nonfinancial corporate net worth. That means, .. read more
Earnings Outside the Vacuum
Since it has been a slow week in terms of economic data, we can take some time to review corporate earnings season. The current estimate for Q1 2013 operating earnings on the S&P 500 (with 465 companies reporting so far) is for 6.2% Y/Y growth. That is up from -2.44% and -5.10% the previous two .. read more
Half Time, Q4 Earnings Season
Through January 31, about 54% of companies had reported and digested earnings announcements. Current estimates for operating earnings have been trimmed all the way back to $23.83 for S&P 500 companies, representing a year-over-year change of 0.42%. However, given the lack of momentum and the number of companies that have lowered and preannounced lower, Q4 .. read more
Earnings Inflection
Earnings season for Q3 2012 has been underwhelming. It appears as if the macro decay of the first half of the year is settling in at the corporate level. With about 20% of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings so far, revenue growth has actually underperformed even the re-adjusted expectations from just last month. Initial .. read more
A Closer Look
The markets were once again higher this week, as the Dow Industrials hit the 13,000 level and the Nasdaq Composite hit 3000, levels not seen in years. The S&P 500 also hit multi-year highs, on its way to the best 2-month start to any year. This might all change soon with Bernanke’s announcement on inflation .. read more
The Stock Market, Dependent upon Economic Policy Prospects, Will Predict November’s Election Winner
Thinking Things Over February 26, 2012 Volume II, Number 8: The Stock Market, Dependent upon Economic Policy Prospects, Will Predict November’s Election Winner By John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Washington, D.C. I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay. We cannot and will not sustain deficits like these without end. … We cannot .. read more
Trend Watcher – 2012 Expectations
Joseph A. Gomez, Sr. Investment Advisor Will 2012 be a repeat of “Sell in May and Go Away”? Collectively, strategists are expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2012 at 1,350, which would be a gain of over 7%. HSBC has a year-end 2012 price target of 1,190 (down 5+%). Goldman Sachs is expecting the S&P 500 .. read more
