s&p 500

Weekly Market Pulse: Are You Ready For The Roarin’ Twenties?

By |2024-02-12T06:55:50-05:00February 12th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

When I sat down to write this week's commentary, my intention was to write - again - about the valuation of the stock market and particularly the S&P 500. And even more specifically about the top 20 stocks, which make up 42% of the index, and trade for an average forward P/E of 27.5. It is an expensive bet on [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The S&P 500 Still Uninvestable?

By |2023-12-03T20:16:58-05:00December 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate|

Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Recession 2025?

By |2023-07-10T10:24:10-04:00July 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate|

Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Patience is Required

By |2023-02-21T08:57:10-05:00February 20th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The hardest thing about investing is the patience it requires. Markets can and do go through long periods of stagnation that test every investor's commitment to their strategy. The last year has been a tough one for investors but the frustration actually extends back further than just 2022. The total return of the S&P 500 since June 1, 2021 is [...]

Market Trends: Large Cap Equity

By |2023-01-11T15:20:13-05:00January 11th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

I am a visual person so I use charts to see the trends in markets. Tactical changes to your portfolio are difficult because there is so much noise out there it is hard to know what you should act on and what you should ignore. Charts make the job easier by eliminating the noise. Follow the trends. Own things that [...]

Great News! Consumer Sentiment Is Awful!

By |2023-01-03T16:45:26-05:00January 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

I don't know how many times I've seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Peak Pessimism?

By |2022-10-03T08:54:56-04:00October 3rd, 2022|Markets|

Goodbye and good riddance to the third quarter of 2022. That was one of the wildest 3 months I've experienced in my 40 years of trading and investing. The quarter started off great with the S&P 500 rising 14% from July 1 to August 16 but ended with a 17% swan dive into the end of the quarter. And we [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Same As It Ever Was

By |2022-08-22T16:12:12-04:00August 21st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

History never repeats itself. Man always does. Voltaire Mark Twain is credited with a similar saying, that history doesn't repeat but it rhymes. Of course, there is scant evidence that Clemens said anything of the sort just as Voltaire may or may not have penned the quote above. But both men were much wittier than I - than most - [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Expand Your Horizons

By |2022-06-27T07:53:49-04:00June 26th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Late last year I wrote a weekly update that focused on the speculative nature of the markets. In that article, I focused on the S&P 500 because I wanted to make a point, namely that owning the S&P 500 did not absolve investment advisers of their fiduciary duty. If you intentionally make the S&P 500 - or any other index [...]

Market Pulse: Mid-Year Update

By |2022-06-20T19:27:59-04:00June 20th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other [...]

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