s&p 500

McDonald’s Again

McDonald’s latest results confirm that something is very much amiss on the consumer side. Total global revenue grew only 1% Y/Y, including new store launches and acquisitions. However, as has been the pattern since 2012, US comparable store sales lagged markedly. The rate of contraction in Q1 was actually the worst in more than a .. read more


In February 2013, more than a year ago, Jeremy Stein, Federal Reserve Board Member, openly expressed concern over behavior in certain sectors of the financial markets. He categorized this as “reaching for yield”, but there was more than a whiff of caution in his exposition of leveraged loans and junk debt. “The annualized rates of .. read more

Corporate Revenues Back To Low Point

Going back to the snow debunking from earlier today, the primary impediment to wider economic expansion outside of bifurcation and artificial monetary channels is income and employment. Mainstream commentary aside, employment has been mostly atrocious for some time. The clear divergence between the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey, both from the BLS, establishes that .. read more

The Market Isn’t The Market

With so much talk about bubbles resurfacing lately, it’s worth an attempt to try to draw out exactly what a stock bubble looks like. There is little dispute about the bubble nature of the dot-com era, but the market has drastically changed in its appearance and structure beyond just Greenspan’s exuberant creation. In this instance .. read more

What A Market Top Might Look Like

Despite the title of this post, I won’t presume to call a market top for anything, particularly in an environment rife with artificiality. Asset bubbles include a regular feature of going a long way past any even semi-rational level of departure, before turning on some wholly unexpected event or parameter. However, if you were brave/foolish .. read more

Earnings And Sales Continue To Run Below Great Recession

Last week it was Target’s turn to turn in a disappointing quarterly report. While being quite unique in blaming Canada, even the results in the US segment were lackluster, at best. Earnings expectations for the fiscal year were dimmed back in May, from a range of $4.85 to $5.05 down to $4.70 to $4.90. The .. read more

Stocks Got Historically Expensive

The Federal Reserve released its calculations for the Flow of Funds Report (Z1) for the first quarter of 2013. That means we can update the Tobin’s Q and our modified Q for the latest figures. As expected, stock prices accelerated through March 31, at a rate much faster than nonfinancial corporate net worth. That means, .. read more

Earnings Outside the Vacuum

Since it has been a slow week in terms of economic data, we can take some time to review corporate earnings season. The current estimate for Q1 2013 operating earnings on the S&P 500 (with 465 companies reporting so far) is for 6.2% Y/Y growth. That is up from -2.44% and -5.10% the previous two .. read more