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s&p 500

Yep, There’s A New ‘V’ In Town And The Locals…Don’t Seem To Much Care For It

By |2020-10-21T16:54:10-04:00October 21st, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage. Getting back to just even with February instead is becoming a distant probability, the kind of [...]

It’s Not As Obvious, But Stocks Are Tipped More Toward ‘Deflation’, Too

By |2020-08-19T17:31:57-04:00August 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You have to laugh at the absurdity of the puppet show theater. A few months ago when bond yields backed up a little bit, as they do from time to time, everyone from Bond Kings to Dollar Crash-ists to Economists to just about every writer at the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg became fixated on yield caps (or yield curve [...]

Inflation Hysteria 2: Because…Reasons

By |2020-08-11T19:41:15-04:00August 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Back in July 2018, even before, we began hearing (constantly) about how the yield curve and especially the 10-year note was no longer a reliable indicator. It just couldn’t have been. Why? Jay Powell, of course. Not just the Fed Chairman but also every mainstream Economist and highlighted Bond King, all of whom were insistent that the economy was accelerating [...]

Those Three Weeks of Hysteria

By |2020-07-31T20:01:25-04:00July 31st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Is three weeks a new record? That’s about how long Jay Powell’s performance bought him across most major markets. It was May 17, a Sunday night, when he appeared on 60 Minutes and, pardon me again, lied his ass off. One right after another, starting with the most obvious falsehood that his gang at the Federal Reserve “saw it coming.” [...]

Why The FOMC Just Embraced The Stock Bubble (and anything else remotely sounding inflationary)

By |2020-06-10T19:10:13-04:00June 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The job, as Jay Powell currently sees it, means building up the S&P 500 as sky high as it can go. The FOMC used to pay lip service to valuations, but now everything is different. He’ll signal to all those fund managers by QE raising bank reserves, leading them on in what they all want to believe is “money printing” [...]

Kittens Are Not Tigers, Bear Did The Dead Cat

By |2020-04-06T19:49:12-04:00April 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On Tuesday, March 18, 2008, the S&P 500 big cap stock index soared. By the end of closing that day, the index had added 4.2%. Investors were increasingly optimistic that new kinds of “stimulus” which had been hastily introduced over the prior few weeks and months would provide enough of a boost so that the economic and financial downside might [...]

Powell Was Warned Last Year: Money Soon…Or Else

By |2020-03-16T18:17:43-04:00March 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Fed unveiled what was supposed to be shock and awe. Instead, it was the predictable series of upsizing the bazookas, monetary armaments in name only. I’ll write it again: there is no money in monetary policy. Central banks are not central. That was the primary lesson of September’s repo rumble, and not for the first time since August 9, [...]

Retail Math, Stock Sentiment

By |2019-09-13T15:42:53-04:00September 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to the Census Bureau, auto sales in the US may be on the upswing. Rising 6.8% year-over-year in August, it was the highest rate in nearly three years for retail sales of automobiles. This follows an upward revised 6.3% increase during July, the best back-to-back months in the beleaguered sector since the end of 2016. Are auto sales experiencing [...]

Anesthesia Right On Schedule

By |2019-06-20T18:35:49-04:00June 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early January, much of the world was dazed and confused. What the hell just happened? Two weeks before, in the middle of December 2018, Jay Powell stood in front of the microphones confidently declaring his rate hikes justified by an extremely strong economy. Yet, even the stock market had turned against him. When the calendar changed to 2019, not [...]

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