Before the Great “Recession” ended the business cycle as we once knew it, there was a widely accepted concept known as stall speed. In the US, if GDP growth decelerated down to around 2% it suggested the system had reached a danger zone of sorts. In a such a weakened state, one good push, or shock, could send the economy [...]
If the government shutdown ends in the near future, there will be a data dump unlike anything we have seen before. The September jobs report at the end of October the same time as retail sales and US imports/exports, etc. The backup in data crunching to fit survey results into seasonally adjusted output may delay the timing of the more [...]
There was not much unexpected in the factory order data, in fact it was right in line with what we have seen for nearly a year. Orders ticked up slightly, but not outside of expected volatility. The six-month average of Y/Y growth in shipments ex transportation was stuck for a second straight month at close to zero; and fell 0.4% [...]
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