starts

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-04:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. For one thing, prices are [...]

Three-For-One In Poor Housing Data

By |2019-05-21T12:23:40-04:00May 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We all know the shorthand. The Federal Reserve influences if not controls economic activity by raising and lowering the federal funds apparatus. Reducing the monetary policy targets is stimulus because everyone loves lower interest costs. Raising them therefore has the opposite effect. More direct and visible consequences are supposed to be observed first in the interest rate sensitive sectors of [...]

The Fate of Real Estate

By |2019-02-26T12:18:57-05:00February 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For years, realtors have been waiting for more housing inventory. It had become an article of faith, what was restraining a full-blown recovery was the lack of units available. The level of resales like construction was up, but still way, way less than it was now fourteen years past the prior peak despite sufficient population growth to have absorbed the [...]

What’s Really Behind the Gathering Slump

By |2018-10-24T11:56:50-04:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The housing slump accelerated in September. Matching the poor performance of resales, sales of newly constructed houses tumbled last month, too. According to the Census Bureau, there were 41k (unadjusted) single-family units sold. That’s down an alarming 18% from the same month last year. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 553k in September, the construction market is down for now [...]

New(s) Housing

By |2018-09-19T16:22:26-04:00September 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in March, the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve stated the obvious. US home construction was stuck near the lowest level in the 60 years of records being kept. Despite a decade having passed since the prior bust turned to boom, and with the economy booming, it was apparently worth mentioning. Obviously, it wasn’t obvious to everyone since [...]

Falling Starts

By |2018-07-18T15:32:04-04:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction estimates are notoriously variable. They can change oftentimes by a substantial amount on a month-by-month basis, and the numbers are just as frequently subject to serious revisions in the short run. Still, we have to note when there are big moves even in these high frequency series, though keeping in mind no definitive conclusions are available from them [...]

Boom Bifurcation In Housing and Real Estate

By |2018-03-21T12:47:42-04:00March 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How much growth is enough? It’s a pretty simple question that upon close examination leaves no easy answers. This is a problem that has plagued economists since there were economists. Recognizing very real dangers on both sides, there is as much trouble about “too much” as “too little.” The purpose of the modern central bank, then, is to moderate and [...]

The Home Builder Rationalization

By |2018-02-16T16:19:10-05:00February 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction rebounded in January 2018, though that may have been nothing more than statistical noise. Total permits filed to build new residential structures totaled 1.396 million (SAAR) last month, up from a revised 1.300 million in December. The entirety of that increase was due to a big jump in permits for the multi-family segment. This latter category consisting of [...]

Housing Construction, Hurricanes or No?

By |2018-01-19T18:55:24-05:00January 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The August appearance of Hurricane Harvey has made economic analysis a little more challenging than usual. That it was followed closely by Hurricane Irma only compounded the difficulty. What we have observed, however, is pretty much what we expected. In several economic categories and among various statistics, there was a rush of activity in October that in most places continued [...]

Is RINO Related To RHINO? Definitely

By |2017-12-19T17:23:28-05:00December 19th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US homebuilders haven’t been this happy since the dot-com era. Not even the housing mania of the mid-2000’s had builders feeling this good about things. According to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), the trade group that represents firms in the industry, their sentiment index registered a blistering 74 in December 2017. Predictably, that’s got a lot of people excited [...]

Go to Top