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stimulus

Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

By |2021-03-16T16:26:11-04:00March 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise. Consumers are spending, prices should be heading upward at a noticeable rate. To begin with, consumer spending – as pictured by [...]

Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

By |2021-02-24T18:38:43-05:00February 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same [...]

The Cautionary Tale of Undocumented Insanity

By |2021-02-10T19:35:15-05:00February 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan is just the name of a group of large islands on the far side of the Pacific from the United States. For most people, there’s not much else more to say beyond the charm of weird, ofttimes masochistic tendencies embedded within the inscrutably fascinating Japanese gameshows. Maybe something about suicidal demographics. The financial media has done such a poor [...]

Super More Perfectly

By |2021-02-03T19:51:22-05:00February 3rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Mario Draghi is back to save Italy by now running it. Like Janet Yellen resurfacing at the US Treasury, these people are thought of in the most positive terms simply because the public remains blissfully unaware of basic data. Not without good reason; the public had for decades come to count on central bankers (for all anyone knew) to keep [...]

Xi’s Not Alone: From Mexico With Distrust

By |2021-01-27T20:00:03-05:00January 27th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China isn’t the only country actively resisting the “stimulus” certainties which go for inarguable wisdom around most of the rest of the world. Xi Jinping has stated his case very plainly, only no one wants to listen to the dictator; or at least take him literally. People would rather believe there’s only the one way to respond to big economic [...]

Xi To Davos: If You’re Waiting For Us, We’re Waiting For You

By |2021-01-25T17:59:44-05:00January 25th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese erstwhile dictator Xi Jinping asked the Davos gathering of the superrich, can’t we all just get along? More than a weird juxtaposition, appearing virtually before other virtual attendees, the Communist strongman wanted to make plain his view, therefore China’s, he harbors no desire for a renewal of the Cold War. Though we come from very different places and [...]

No Sharp Turns From China’s Potential

By |2021-01-19T17:31:41-05:00January 19th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most people can be forgiven for suffering the misimpression. Some of it is intentional, as reflation – and those selling it – absolutely require a healthy Chinese contribution to reach their strong global rebound. As we’ve documented over the last decade, it almost doesn’t matter what numbers China’s economy actually puts forward, that system is always “strong.”The only time it [...]

They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?)

By |2021-01-06T19:53:13-05:00January 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months. The JGB 10-year yield had dropped to a low of just 77.2 [...]

The Summer Slowdown Collides With The Summers Acceleration Theory

By |2020-12-29T17:19:37-05:00December 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You’d think Larry Summers would know better. Not that he stepped in it, again, but rather why he did this particular time. Making a big deal out of inflationary aggregate demand when he’s been practically the lone mainstream Economist to look at the post-2008 economy in an honest and serious fashion to then somehow failing to incorporate that view into [...]

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