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stimulus

Six Point Nine Times Two Equals What It Had In Twenty Fourteen

By |2020-11-16T18:47:36-05:00November 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a shock, total disbelief given how everyone, and I mean everyone, had penciled China in as the world’s go-to growth engine. If the global economy was ever going to get off the ground again following GFC1 more than a half a decade before, the Chinese had to get back to their precrisis “normal.” In 2014, the clock was [...]

No Time For Pfizer, Europe Heads Back

By |2020-11-11T18:09:46-05:00November 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe’s problems are more immediate. Encouraging news about Pfizer’s vaccine won’t change the European circumstances in near enough time to avoid what’s more and more looking like a real possibility for a retrenchment. In this case, COVID cases are a primary culprit, meaning how authorities over there are responding to their rise. As such, it has taken the shine off [...]

Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

By |2020-11-05T19:33:41-05:00November 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way [...]

Using GDI’s Eye On The Remaining Private Gaps

By |2020-10-30T17:57:12-04:00October 30th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Following up on the whole subsidy issue, GDP versus GDI though here with a determined eye on the Net Operating Surplus (NOS). The way this stuff is accounted for in the government’s (BEA) scheme makes it very confusing; the subsidies are subtracted from indirect taxes, therefore they reduce GDI. The more subsidies, the less aggregate income?It’s not done on purpose, [...]

Roaring GDP, So What’s That In The I

By |2020-10-29T20:15:43-04:00October 29th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US GDP both nominal and real came roaring back in Q3. Posting its largest single quarter gain ever, and it’s not even close, the domestic economy appears to have surmounted the COVID obstacles as well as others imposed by Q1’s GFC2. These estimates are the most gigantic yet. By the numbers, real GDP was $18.6 trillion (SAAR) during Q3, up [...]

Three From Xi (bonus 4th for CNY)

By |2020-10-28T16:35:01-04:00October 28th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Physical cash vs. bank reserves. Quality growth vs. quantity. Xi Jinping vs. everyone not onboard with Xi Jinping. All three contests are actually very simple and straightforward – once you let go of the strong economy, money printing Federal Reserve nonsense. As to the last of the trio, Emperor Xi has been awfully keen this year to redo government flags.Communists [...]

Anesthesia

By |2020-10-22T19:33:00-04:00October 22nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europeans are growing more downbeat again. While ostensibly many are more worried about a new set of restrictions due to (even more overreactions about) COVID, that’s only part of the problem. The bigger factor, economically speaking, is that Europe’s economy has barely moved, or at most not moved near enough, off the bottom. To interrupt now what has already proved [...]

OK, That’s More Like It, But Does Enough Of The Economy Believe It’s Enough?

By |2020-10-16T17:02:58-04:00October 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

OK, that’s more like it. Finally. American consumers absolutely splurged last month. According the Census Bureau, retail sales last month spiked by nearly 2% (seasonally-adjusted) from August, an unusually big monthly increase. This surge in spending during September 2020 sent the unadjusted total up by just more than 7% from September 2019. How good is that? Setting aside the statistics [...]

Sobering Germans To The Mexican and Indian “V”

By |2020-10-13T17:38:49-04:00October 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The original “V” narrative was simple and straightforward. The economy was turned off by governments prioritizing modeled simulations of something like the Black Death, but it would be easy enough to turn it right back on especially with the aid of so much “stimulus” being added in every possible way. Monetary, fiscal, you name it.Piece of cake. Legitimizing the choice [...]

Are These Magic Beans?

By |2020-10-09T18:56:27-04:00October 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s Caixin Composite PMI came down a little bit in the month of September 2020. According to the latest update, the country’s manufacturing sector index declined by a small amount while services accelerated only modestly. Combined, the manufacturing side worked out to contribute more to the composite than services, so the score for last month dropped to 54.5 from 55.1 [...]

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