Goldilocks Or The Big Bad Bear?
Once upon a time in a commentary long, long ago I said that we’d know the US economy was on the right track when we saw three conditions simultaneously: rising stocks, a rising dollar and a falling gold price. Those three conditions – sustained – would indicate that the market is anticipating better growth and .. read more
Whiplash
A month ago stocks were trading near recent highs on improving corporate earnings and a steadily improving US economic backdrop. Investors were not euphoric but a certain amount of complacency had crept into the market with the volatility index at levels that indicated little in the way of demand for downside protection. Individual investors were not .. read more
Sentiment Turns Bearish
The AAII poll showed a big jump in bears: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Investor pessimism about stocks is at its worst since at least November, according to recent sentiment polls. Nearly 51% of investors surveyed by the American Association of Individual Investors said they feel bearish about the market over the next six months, the .. read more
Sentiment Turns Negative Quickly
Sentiment toward the stock market turned negative very quickly in the correction (via Marketwatch): Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). It stands currently at just 20.3%, down from 65.2% in .. read more
Bloggers Bearish
February 1st Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment poll shows 43.75% Bearish, 37.5% Neutral and just 18.75% Bullish. Follow the link for a chart and history. The American Association of Individual Investors poll has also now flipped to show more bears than bulls. Bullish 35% Bearish 36.7% Neutral 28.3% It didn’t take much of a selloff to .. read more
Mark Hulbert on Sentiment
Mark Hulbert on sentiment: It would be a bullish sign, for example, if the market were to rally over the few weeks and the mood were to remain basically subdued. It in contrast would be a bad sign if advisers quickly jumped back on the bullish bandwagon. I know that’s what I’m looking for. Read .. read more
