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Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet

By |2019-10-23T15:07:34-04:00July 17th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month's update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we've seen in recent [...]

Country ETF Update

By |2016-03-27T16:05:51-04:00March 27th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

The theme for Single Country ETFs over the last month is either countries that produce a lot of natural resources (commodities) or Countries in which sane people don't invest. Okay, maybe sanity isn't the proper metric but surely investors who can't afford to take a loss shouldn't be investing in Russia, Peru or Turkey, all three of which make the [...]

How Much of Equity Prices Is Real?

By |2013-03-05T16:38:12-05:00March 5th, 2013|Markets|

The DJIA is at an all-time high, but how much of it is “real”. Earnings growth dropped to negative two quarters ago, so that removes some of the fundamental appeal of a new high. Comparing economic parameters to the last time markets were at these levels does not offer a favorable context either. There are ways to judge “extreme” valuation [...]

Portfolio Changes

By |2012-12-31T16:59:47-05:00December 31st, 2012|Markets|

We made several changes to our portfolios today. This was not in response to the fiscal cliff situation. We believe that fiscal policy will continue to be a contentious issue throughout at least the first quarter. Any deal reached today or this week will only be a band aid that allows the two parties to continue negotiating a larger, more [...]

The Economy Is Not The Market

By |2012-12-16T19:51:22-05:00December 16th, 2012|Economy|

The financial press this year has been filled with stories about the economic slowdown in China and the debt crisis in Europe.  Opinions on Chinese growth this year have ranged from dire (a hard landing involving a growth rate most countries would still envy) to bad but not as dire (a soft landing). All the talk of China and its [...]

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