Top News Headlines Paris terrorists dispatched; hostage crisis in Mali ends with 27 dead. Stocks have a big week, up over 3%. Fed minutes are dovishly hawk-like. United Health says losing millions on Obamacare, may pull out of exchanges next year. Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard released from US prison. Square prices IPO at half off last private funding round giving [...]
Top News Headlines 129 Dead, Over 500 injured in Paris Attacks Retail stocks bludgeoned after earnings reports Republicans and Democrats Debate, America Appalled At Choices Stocks fall, bonds rally, oil craters Selfish brats protest adulthood, demand to be coddled in University demonstrations Economic News Neil Kashkar named head of Minneapolis Fed Eurozone growth slows, industrial output down again, exports weaken [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads narrowed on the month but the widening trend is intact and has recently resumed. Valuations are still excessive and 3rd quarter earnings have been generally downbeat. A divergence is [...]
Last week's employment report raised the odds of a December rate hike considerably and the consensus at this point seems to be that it is a done deal. The employment report was pretty good with the unemployment rate down to 5%, 271,000 jobs added and a pay hike to boot. Year over year average hourly earnings are now up 2.4%, [...]
Top News Headlines October best month for stocks in four years. Valeant troubles continue. Pfizer, Allergan consider merger. Earnings, earnings, earnings. CNBC botches Republican debate. Debt deal reached between President and Republicans. Economic News Fed leaves rates unchanged; statement points to December hike. Yeah, right. BOJ leaves QE program as is. GDP disappoints at 1.5% for 3rd quarter. New and [...]
Stocks rallied strongly last week in response to comments by Mario Draghi that signaled a willingness, a determination in fact, to engage in more monetary stimulus. In fact, Draghi seemed to promise - once again - to do "whatever it takes", offering to consider "a whole menu of monetary policy instruments" in saying that the ECB was now "vigilant". One [...]
Top News Headlines Paul Ryan running for Speaker of the House. Old tech blows out earnings estimates; GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT lead the way. Huge hurricane heads for Mexico. Hillary testifies, Republicans look stupid.....again. Mets sweep the Cubs; my friend Jim sighs. Economic News ECB hints at more QE; stocks soar. China cuts interest rates and reserve requirements; stocks soar. [...]
Stocks rallied again last week, up a bit less than 1% as weak economic data pushed out - again - expectations for the first Fed rate hike to March of next year. I suspect this won't be the last week that sees that time line extended although whether that translates to higher stock prices is more questionable. In looking through [...]
Top News Headlines Hillary debates aging hippie Sanders and some other guy. Dell to buy EMC in biggest tech deal ever, assuming bond market is agreeable. Walmart earnings take a dive, stock follows. Gold turns positive for the year. Economic News China trade figures disappoint. US PPI and CPI both negative on the month. Inflation? What inflation? Retail sales up [...]
It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and even those like the Indian [...]
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