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Weekly Market Pulse: This Too Shall Pass

By |2023-04-24T09:11:36-04:00April 24th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

What is the state of the US economy? When will this long-anticipated recession finally arrive? And when it does, what does it mean for investors? Those are the questions everyone is asking and the answers are, well, hard. Despite years - decades, centuries? - of research, there is no accurate way I know of to predict the timing or depth [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What’s Wrong With T-bills?

By |2023-04-03T08:06:00-04:00April 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first quarter has come to a close and things have changed a lot...and not very much at all. Expectations coming into the year were that rates would peak in the spring at around 5% and then fall in the second half of the year to about 4.5%. That was the highest probability outcome according to the futures markets. Of [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Perspective

By |2023-03-27T07:47:12-04:00March 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There has been a lot of angst over the last couple of weeks about a potential banking crisis. There have been 4 failures so far: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. The first of these hasn't been mentioned much because it was primarily associated with lending in the crypto market and, as far as I know, there [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Been There, Done That

By |2023-03-20T07:51:06-04:00March 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: It Isn’t A Bailout!

By |2023-03-13T07:58:06-04:00March 12th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Last week started with investors focused on Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress and any hints about future monetary policy. During the course of two days of testimony, which was deemed more hawkish than expected, the market priced in another rate hike and pushed out the possibility of a rate cut all the way to January 2024. The week ended with [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: What Moves Markets

By |2023-03-06T09:13:58-05:00March 5th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

With the 1-year Treasury bill paying 5%, why would anyone take the risk of owning stocks? - Everyone It is a good question and I can't tell you what investors will do this year or how stocks will perform, but history says it isn't the level of rates that matters for stock returns. Believe it or not, it isn't even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Patience is Required

By |2023-02-21T08:57:10-05:00February 20th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The hardest thing about investing is the patience it requires. Markets can and do go through long periods of stagnation that test every investor's commitment to their strategy. The last year has been a tough one for investors but the frustration actually extends back further than just 2022. The total return of the S&P 500 since June 1, 2021 is [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Look Up In The Sky! It’s A UFO! Or Not!

By |2023-02-13T07:51:25-05:00February 12th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese "weather" balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven't declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Days Are Here Again!

By |2023-02-06T09:05:47-05:00February 5th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Your cares and troubles are gone There'll be no more from now on! Happy days are here again! The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here again! Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager That's certainly how it's felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Maybe It Was Transitory After All

By |2023-01-17T07:34:03-05:00January 16th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The inflation report last week was met with a big sigh of relief by investors. Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed's Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. In reality, inflation peaked months ago but the Fed hadn't really caught on yet - they're a little slow - and the market has been fearing that [...]

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