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structural

Low-Amplitude ‘Cycles’

By |2014-09-05T16:33:57-04:00September 5th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you limited yourself to only the official unemployment rate the picture you get of the economy is seemingly one that fits very much inside historical expectations. The rate rose and fell just like it “should” in a recession/recovery cycle. That raises the question about why this period has been so divergent with past expectations. When even the Federal Reserve [...]

A Long Look At Productivity And The Stark Reality of It

By |2014-08-08T17:54:26-04:00August 8th, 2014|Economy, Markets|

The BLS updated its figures for economic and labor productivity, including the revisions for the first quarter. As it stood prior, the calculation for productivity was among the worst of the past four decades. Given that GDP was already revised lower in the interim, that meant that productivity estimates were going be also sent further downward. Since productivity is a [...]

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