fbpx

swap spreads

Fed Already Denying Demand Destruction Which May Already Be Showing Up

By |2022-03-22T20:08:21-04:00March 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was some notable grumbling in the months leading up to it, but with the yield curve inverting in August 2019 at the 2s10s junctures, the only part the public has been led to believe is worth noticing, it unleashed a tidal wave of denials. They were weird and obviously desperate, too, because Jay Powell’s Fed had already conducted its [...]

Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally

By |2022-03-21T20:19:56-04:00March 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets. One reason why is that policymakers at the Fed really still believe, even after so [...]

A Year Later, The Fact Fedwire Is Still There Tells Us Why Markets Have Done What They’ve Done

By |2022-02-23T18:55:59-05:00February 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The world seemed to have everything going for it, for once, everything coming up favorable for the first time seemingly in forever. There were vaccines, financial government interventions worldwide just recklessly chucking money at anyone with a pulse, an end to the pandemic even normalcy right in front of us. What could possibly have messed this up?It was around 11:15 [...]

Are Central Bankers About To Spike The Ball At The 30-yard line (again)?

By |2022-02-22T18:50:50-05:00February 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nobody, and I mean nobody, does premature celebrations like central bankers. When it comes to their non-money monetary policies and the inflation they seek to create from them, time and again officials in every jurisdiction spike the ball at least 30 yards before they reach the endzone. Whenever one or another consumer price measure ticks up, or accelerates dramatically as [...]

The Real Money Doesn’t *Spread* Inflation

By |2022-02-21T18:38:16-05:00February 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was the clash of all clashes, the textbook up against practice in a real world falling apart. Theory’s chance to save the day and prove itself, what should’ve been the legend’s finest hour. Time to put up, or... On the one side, there was the “money” we’re all told is easily created, and on the other what may have [...]

The Money *All* Agrees: Taper Rejection Meets Policy-Error Error

By |2022-02-18T19:02:09-05:00February 18th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Balance sheet capacity as an intangible (and deeply misunderstood) monetary property is the biggest motivating factor behind changes in or to the offshore, shadow ledger-money reserve system. The eurodollar. Since it is a distributed ledger shared amongst, and kept by, the big-bank global banking cabal, its members’ ability to expand their own individual balance sheets contributes to the overall increase [...]

Landmine Review: The Big One

By |2021-11-10T10:54:42-05:00November 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Representatives in Congress from both parties were understandably apoplectic. Amidst the world’s worst monetary chaos since the Great Collapse after October 1929, legislators had been told by everyone from central bankers to all the right Economists how laws needed to passed right away, no delay, which would give the Bush Administration authority to buy up the “toxic waste” each had [...]

Hey Jay, Maybe Check The Swaps Before Committing to Taper

By |2021-09-21T20:11:51-04:00September 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was said to be something hugely significant, truly momentous - but only until it started to misbehave all over again. This was the summer of 2013, SHIBOR Summer in China and the misunderstood, mislabeled “taper tantrum” in the US$. Consistent with the latter’s more optimistic take on the world, the 30-year swap spread turned positive for the first time [...]

Reaching Half A Year, What’s The (Complete) Reflation Situation?

By |2021-02-03T18:08:32-05:00February 3rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tomorrow represents the 6-month mark for the Treasury market. On August 4, 2020, nominal benchmark 10-year yields declined to their absolute closing lows. Over the half-year since, rates have generally been on the rise which should be a long enough period by which to categorize our interpretations of what it all means.Most mainstream commentary places any upward trend (of any [...]

Inflation, Reflation, Or Something Else?

By |2021-01-04T19:25:12-05:00January 4th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is there a difference between inflation or reflation, and whatever this is? Not mere semantics, it may be everything for what the future ultimately looks like. Yet, the only one ever talked about is the first, as if a foregone conclusion. Why?We’re conditioned to believe in only one or the other, recession still contracting or otherwise total recovery, on top [...]

Go to Top