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symmetry

White-Hot Cycles of Silence

By |2021-12-27T18:46:15-05:00December 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’re only ever given the two options: the economy is either in recession, or it isn’t. And if “not”, then we’re led to believe it must be in recovery if not outright booming already. These are what Economics says is the business cycle. A full absence of unit roots. No gray areas to explore the sudden arrival of only deeply [...]

This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…

By |2020-08-27T19:29:00-04:00August 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke. There’s a lot [...]

Rate Cuts Will Not Be The Fed’s First Insurance Policy

By |2019-07-30T17:11:27-04:00July 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I don’t think anyone really noticed the timing because nobody really noticed it had happened. What took place last year qualifies as a big deal in the world of central banking and moneyless monetary policy. The lack of clarity about it as well as what sure looks like indecision portrays an intellectual foundation at odds with public perception. First, the [...]

If Powell Is Angry And Disgusted, That’s A Small Positive

By |2018-03-27T20:40:17-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to one research company, new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was disgusted and angry at his press conference yesterday. The firm, Prattle, employed facial recognition software to track Powell’s expressions throughout his inaugural press conference. By their count, he was disgusted 36 times, angry 41 times, and expressed contempt another five. Powell conveyed joy on a mere four instances. [...]

Industrial Symmetry

By |2017-03-17T12:23:31-04:00March 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies. In what is, or was, essentially symmetry, there had been until 2008 considerable correlation between the size, scope, and speed of any recovery and its antecedent downturn, or even slowdown. The relationship was so striking that it moved Milton [...]

CBO: QE Failed As It Has Shown Nothing For The Economy

By |2014-11-25T17:35:42-05:00November 25th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I have said before, the handoff from Bernanke to Yellen was significant not just in terms of background but also in philosophy and viewpoint. Both were strictly academic statisticians (they call themselves economists) but there was an immense shift about QE. To be fair, there is some evidence that thoughts about QE had changed during the last year of [...]

Slack

By |2014-11-07T15:48:57-05:00November 7th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All the parameters we have come to expect from the payroll report were exhibited for October, including “good” numbers all around. Even the Household Survey jumped in October while the Labor Force grew slightly, so for one month volatility in the data was at least favorable. None of that, of course, erases the problems that have been equally durable and [...]

GDP Pieces

By |2014-08-28T12:33:27-04:00August 28th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Following up on my earlier observations about a reduced trajectory, getting away from the thick trees of quarterly statistic movements and revision for the forest of patterns and paths, viewing the subcomponents of GDP as standalone accounts rather than contributors highlights exactly that problem. Whether you view the economy through real final sales (both of domestic product and to domestic [...]

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