tax reform

Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?

By |2018-07-11T18:33:17+00:00July 11th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true. Last year’s [...]

Stubborn Recoveries And The Bad Ideas That Follow From Them

By |2018-02-20T12:13:45+00:00February 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

We have ample enough evidence for the efficacy, or inefficacy really, of tax cuts as fiscal stimulus. They have been deployed numerous times all over the world the last ten years, and the results have been nearly identical in all. Most charitably, proponents have been left with some form of “jobs saved” to describe, counterfactually, [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Weak Dollar Stirs A Toxic Stew

By |2018-01-15T17:48:01+00:00January 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time - slowly - and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Animal Spirits Haunt The Market

By |2017-12-19T15:56:01+00:00December 19th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Who You Gonna Believe?

By |2017-12-06T13:52:13+00:00December 5th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

We've had a pretty good run of data recently and with the tax bill passing the Senate one would expect to see markets react positively, to reflect renewed optimism about economic growth. We have improving economic data on pretty much a global basis. It isn't a boom by any stretch of the imagination but there [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

By |2017-11-07T20:28:18+00:00November 7th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2017-10-26T19:49:01+00:00October 26th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Yawn

By |2017-10-23T19:03:05+00:00October 23rd, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

When I wrote the update two weeks ago I said that we might be nearing the point of maximum optimism. Apparently, there is another gear for optimism in this market as stocks have just continued to slowly but surely reach for the sky. Which is fine I suppose since we own the devils (although not [...]