In 1993, Stanford economist John B. Taylor wrote an influential paper that introduced the economics profession (statisticians, almost all) to what was later called the Taylor Rule. The need for such a “rule” was an unspoken outgrowth of monetary evolution. In the 1960’s and 1970’s long-established regression models estimating the influence of then-defined money on economic variables had broken down [...]
Tail risks have eased following the end to the current Greek crisis. The world now looks to move toward economic normalization. Bonds performed well during the flight to safety coinciding with the referendum and emergency meeting circuit in Europe during the first half of this month. Now that investors are collectively exhaling and eyes move toward the timing of the signaled, Fed [...]
After 3 decades of disinflation and 15 years of very aggressive monetary policy, asset prices are high. Returns are expected to be below average for the next decade. Given the hyper-aggressive monetary policy of the last 6 years, the historically low yields on bonds means multi-asset class portfolios will be hampered by low returns on fixed income. Will the [...]
Thinking Things Over February 12, 2012 Volume II, Number 6: Is Inflation, a Stagnant Economy, and Lower Standard of Living in Our Future?? By John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Washington, D.C. Despots and democratic majorities are drunk with power. They must reluctantly admit that they are subject to the laws of nature. But they reject the very notion of economic law . [...]
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