tbac

Macro: Treasury refunding — We don’t need as much as we thought — yields drop

By |2023-11-04T13:14:34-04:00November 1st, 2023|Bonds, Economy|

In August the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told the market they were raising the net new money issuance recommendation for Q32023 from the initial guess of $733B to over $1T. They also announced a recommendation of $852B of net new money for Q42023. That spooked the bond market and 10-year yields jumped from 4% at the beginning of August [...]

Being An Economist Means Never Having To Say Deflation

By |2019-02-11T17:19:07-05:00February 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In January 2017, there was a lot of praise for Goldman Sachs especially in London. This stood in obvious contrast to another global peer being savaged. While Deutsche Bank couldn’t pull its name out of the sewer, GS’s London unit was heralded for standing up when the market needed it. Brexit was a fascinating story in ways that had absolutely [...]

The Great Risk of So Many Dinosaurs

By |2018-01-03T16:19:30-05:00January 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) was established a long time ago in the maelstrom of World War II budgetary as well as wartime conflagration. That made sense. To fight all over the world, the government required creative help in figuring out how to sell an amount of bonds it hadn’t needed (in proportional terms) since the Civil War. A [...]

Attending the Exits

By |2014-08-21T11:55:46-04:00August 21st, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is so much about the repo market that gets lost in the minute details that are more often than not counterintuitive. It can sometimes be confusing as to why counterparties might be willing to pay you to borrow their cash, which is what a negative repo rate actually indicates. In that situation, which is what we are talking about [...]

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