Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the [...]
In January 2016, everything came to a head. The oil price crash (2nd time), currency chaos, global turmoil, and even a second stock market liquidation were all being absorbed by the global economy. The disruptions were far worse overseas, thus the global part of global turmoil, but the US economy, too, was showing clear signs of distress. A manufacturing recession [...]
The proper use of statistics is, well, the proper use of statistics. While that is certainly a tautology it is also a valid criticism. The more “modern” we have become, the more the math is applied as if it were a substitute for general (and generous) scientific inquiry. Far too often, what is purported as such is nothing more than [...]
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